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East China Normal University (2020)

Comprehensive Assessment of Drought in the Tarim River Basin Based on GLDAS and GRACE Data


Titre : Comprehensive Assessment of Drought in the Tarim River Basin Based on GLDAS and GRACE Data

Auteur : 朱妮娜

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2020

Université : East China Normal University

Résumé partiel
Drought is one of the most widespread and frequent natural phenomena in the world.Under the combined effects of global climate change and human activities,the issue of drought has become increasingly prominent,and it has become a basic problem and an important challenge faced by various countries or regions.In China,especially the Tarim River Basin in the arid and semi-arid regions of the northwest,its status is extremely important,but the frequent occurrence of drought has brought great distress to the development of the basin.Some scholars have pointed out that the northwestern region of China has gradually tended to become warm and humid,but other scholars have raised doubts and given the opposite view.Then,under the controversial background of "the northwestern China gradually develops in the direction of warmth and humidity",what is the drought change in the Tarim River Basin,and how is the risk of drought disasters in different regions ? The discussion of these issues is of great significance for understanding the drought problem in the basin.Based on this,this study takes the "four sources and one trunk"(four sources : Aksu Basin River,Kaikong Basin River,Hetian Basin River,Yarkant Basin River ;one trunk : the main Stream Baisn of Tarim River Basin)in the Tarim River Basin as the specific research object,and the four sources are divided into mountainous and plain areas,and the one trunk is divided into upstream,middle and lower reaches,and the perspectives of different types of droughtsmeteorological drought and hydrological drought,respectively,and combines station measured data and earth product data to explore the drought variations in this basin during 1961-2010.First,the trend analysis,empirical mode decomposition(EEMD),empirical orthogonal function analysis(EOF),and rescaling range analysis method(R/S analysis method)were applied to meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the “four sources and one trunk” of the Tarim River Basin.This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variations of meteorological drought and hydrological drought and explores whether the area has become drier or wetter in the past 50 years.Secondly,the lag correlation analysis and cross-wavelet analysis are used to analyze the response of hydrological drought to meteorological drought.Finally,based on the theory of the regional disaster system,it is believed that the regional disaster system is mainly composed of disaster-causing factors,disaster-pregnant environments,disaster bearers,and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.We evaluate the risk of meteorological drought disasters,hydrological drought disasters,and comprehensive meteorological-hydrological drought disaster risks in the "four sources and one trunk".

Mots clés : Tarim River Basin; meteorological drought; hydrological drought; multi-time scale response; drought disaster risk assessment;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 22 octobre 2020, mise à jour le 21 juin 2021