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Colorado State University (2020)

Numerical modeling and hydrochemical analysis of the current and future state of seawater intrusion in the Todos Santos aquifer, Mexico

Fichera, Marissa M.

Titre : Numerical modeling and hydrochemical analysis of the current and future state of seawater intrusion in the Todos Santos aquifer, Mexico

Auteur : Fichera, Marissa M.

Université de soutenance : Colorado State University

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2020

Résumé
The Todos Santos aquifer, Baja California Sur, Mexico, provides the sole source of freshwater to the town of Todos Santos, and is utilized for domestic and agricultural needs crucial to the town’s economy. The region is characterized by an arid climate. Major recharge to the aquifer is supplied from intermittent cyclones. Irregular and unpredictable recharge rates combined with population growth resulting from resort development put the Todos Santos aquifer at risk of overexploitation, causing potentially permanent water quality degradation by salinization as a result of seawater intrusion. Understanding the complex response of seawater intrusion to variable pumping rates and sea-level rise is critical to water resource management in Todos Santos. This study utilized numerical simulation of variable-density groundwater flow, using SEAWAT, in conjunction with temporal and spatial hydrochemical analysis, to evaluate the current and future extent of seawater intrusion in the area. Forecasting simulations were run for five, ten, and twenty years following 2017, for five different hydrologic scenarios, which implemented various pumping rates, sea-level rise, and overexploitation of significant surface water resources. Hydrochemical analysis shows an increase in groundwater specific conductance and chloride concentration within two kilometers of the coastline from 2007 to 2017. This combined with the distribution of groundwater samples exhibiting chloride concentration above the The Todos Santos aquifer, Baja California Sur, Mexico, provides the sole source of freshwater to the town of Todos Santos, and is utilized for domestic and agricultural needs crucial to the town’s economy. The region is characterized by an arid climate. Major recharge to the aquifer is supplied from intermittent cyclones. Irregular and unpredictable recharge rates combined with population growth resulting from resort development put the Todos Santos aquifer at risk of overexploitation, causing potentially permanent water quality degradation by salinization as a result of seawater intrusion. Understanding the complex response of seawater intrusion to variable pumping rates and sea-level rise is critical to water resource management in Todos Santos. This study utilized numerical simulation of variable-density groundwater flow, using SEAWAT, in conjunction with temporal and spatial hydrochemical analysis, to evaluate the current and future extent of seawater intrusion in the area. Forecasting simulations were run for five, ten, and twenty years following 2017, for five different hydrologic scenarios, which implemented various pumping rates, sea-level rise, and overexploitation of significant surface water resources. Hydrochemical analysis shows an increase in groundwater specific conductance and chloride concentration within two kilometers of the coastline from 2007 to 2017. This combined with the distribution of groundwater samples exhibiting chloride concentration above the

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