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Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (AUTH) 2010

Study and evaluation of modern base of data ensembles (E-OBS) : extreme indices of precipitation in east Mediterranean

Τερζή Γεωργία Χρήστου

Titre : Study and evaluation of modern base of data ensembles (E-OBS) : extreme indices of precipitation in east Mediterranean Μελέτη και αξιολόγηση της σύγχρονης βάσης δεδομένων πλέγματος ensembles (e-obs) : ακραίοι δείκτες βροχόπτωσης στην Ανατολική Μεσόγειο

Auteur : Τερζή Γεωργία Χρήστου

Etablissement de soutenance : Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (AUTH)

Grade : Postgraduate 2010

In the present study, was attempted the evaluation but also the presentation of modern base of Ensembles (E-Obs), for the region of Eastern Mediterranean and for period 1960-2003. With the use of statistical methods, became an effort of evaluation of data of extreme rainfall in seasonal scale. Concretely, the E-Obs compared with the real data on three climatic extreme indicators for 27 stations of region of study. This data emanate from 27 meteorological stations of basin of Eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, were used the daily data of modern European base of given Ensembles which are provided in the frames of European inquiring program for climatic changes ENSEMBLES. For the description of them, have been calculated the same indicators of extreme precipitation. For the utilisation of data of model, it was essentially the choice of nearest point of mesh in the station of interest. Then, the data are compared with those of nearest nodes per team, while also are calculated from each other factors of cross-correlation for the interval of 41 years (1960-2000). In this point, is achieved the evaluation of faculty of modern base of given E-OBS, in the simulation of real indices of extreme rainfall. Also, was evaluated the faculty of given E-Obs in the simulation of real prices, with base the factors of cross-correlation. Concisely, it resulted that the simulation of seasonal prices of indicator of drought, is characterized by over-estimate in general terms by the base of given E-Obs, mainly for the summertime. In contrast, the indice PQ95 is underestimated, with statistically considerably important differences mainly for the winter and in the fall. The indice Rx5d, is underestimated, with statistically important differences of mainly winter and least the summertime. Moreover, the indice Rx5d was better calculated in stead the other. The season at which the base of given E-Obs appears to be more reliable, is the winter and in the fall for the indicator of drought, in the fall for indice Pq95 and for the indiceRx5d. The E-Obs consequently have satisfactory results, contrary to the summertime. According to the results, the indices of extreme rainfall satisfactorily calculated, for most stations of Eastern Mediterranean. The particular behaviour of certain stations, it is interpreted by clearly local reasons.

Mots clés : European Climate Assesment, Meteorological Institut of Europe datasets (ECA), Μετεωρολογική Υπηρεσία Ελλάδας, Ευρωπαϊκό Ινστιτούτο Πληροφοριών, Meteorological Institut of Greece, Μετεωρολογική Υπηρεσία Δεδομένων Ευρώπης


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