Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Master → Chine → 2020 → Potential Geographical Distribution of Ambrosia Artemisiifolia L.and Ambrosia Trifida L.in Xinjiang under Climate Change

Université de Shihezi (2020)

Potential Geographical Distribution of Ambrosia Artemisiifolia L.and Ambrosia Trifida L.in Xinjiang under Climate Change

马倩倩;

Titre : Potential Geographical Distribution of Ambrosia Artemisiifolia L.and Ambrosia Trifida L.in Xinjiang under Climate Change

Auteur : 马倩倩;

Grade : Master’s Theses 2020

Université : Université de Shihezi

Résumé partiel
Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.and Ambrosia trifida L.are the first and second batches of severely invasive species announced in China,respectively.Which not only seriously threaten agricultural and animal husbandry production,causing biodiversity to decline,and its pollen have highly allergenic.At present,these two species have invaded in the Central Asian hub of the “Belt and Road” – the Yili Valley in Xinjiang,and widely spreading in the farmland,forest area,grassland,roadside,wasteland.However their potential development trend is hard to estimate.It will be of great significance for the early warning and specific prevention and control of invasive species to clarify which regions are suitable for the invasive species to survive,how their suitability degree are and how their response to climate change.In this paper,firstly,the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve(ROC curve)was used to evaluate the simulation effects of the three niche models(Bioclim,ENFA,and Maxent).Then,a relatively better model among them was used to predicted the potential distribution of A.artemisiifolia and A.trifida in the current climate based on two scales data(Global scale and Xinjiang scale),and then divided the continuous suitability probability map into a binary(presence / absence)distribution map,finally we divided the suitability and unsuitability areas into four levels respectively by using frequency-based statistics method.In order to explore the effects of climate change on the potential habitat of A.artemisiifolia and A.trifida in Xinjiang,17 sets of GCMs data were used to predict in two periods,2050s(2041-2060)and 2070s(2061-2080),under two climate change scenarios,RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5)and RCP8.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5),then a majority voting methods were used to determine their future suitable habitats.Finally,the distribution changes of A.artemisiifolia and A.trifida in different periods were calculated and analyzed from the aspects of area change and range change.The result showed that :(1)The Maxent model has a relatively better prediction effect.The AUC values of the ENFA,Bioclim,and Maxent models were 0.898,0.921,and 0.965,respectively.The model performance showed that Maxent was the model with the best simulation effect among them.In addition,Maxent model output the continuous existence probability map,value range from 0 1,which can better distinguish the suitable degree of species in different regions.(2)Major environmental impact factors.Precipitation-related variable was the primary limiting factor for the distribution of A.artemisiifolia in the world and Xinjiang,with cumulative contribution rates of 64.7% and 39.9%,respectively.The Precipitation of Driest Month was the factor that contributes most to A.artemisiifolia’s distribution in both scales(63.5% and 27.3%,respectively).Precipitation-related(cumulative contribution rate was 36.0%)variable was the primary limiting factor for A.trifida’s distribution in Xinjiang,and temperature-related(cumulative contribution rate was 56.0%)variable was the primary limiting factor for A.trifida’s distribution in the world.

Mots clés : biological invasion; climate change; Ecological Niche Modeling; suitable threshold;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 3 novembre 2020