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Accueil du site → Master → Brésil → 2020 → Mudanças climáticas, seus impactos na cultura da mandioca no Semiárido Brasileiro e estratégias de manejo para mitigação das perdas

Universidade de Sao Paulo (2020)

Mudanças climáticas, seus impactos na cultura da mandioca no Semiárido Brasileiro e estratégias de manejo para mitigação das perdas

Bongiovani, Paola de Figueiredo

Titre : Mudanças climáticas, seus impactos na cultura da mandioca no Semiárido Brasileiro e estratégias de manejo para mitigação das perdas

Climate change, its impacts on cassava production in Brazilian Semi-arid region and management strategies for mitigation of losses

Auteur : Bongiovani, Paola de Figueiredo

Université de soutenance : Universidade de Sao Paulo

Grade : Mestra em Ciencias 2020

Résumé partiel
Cassava is one of the most important crops in tropical countries. Due to its tolerance to adverse weather and soil conditions, it has been cultivated as a strategic crop in semi-arid regions. With the predictions of future climate changes, it is imperative to understand in which ways cassava production might be affected in these regions, in order to anticipate crucial actions to prevent and/or attenuate possible impacts and prepare the population to deal with that. In this context, crop simulation models are effective tools to quantify the future climate effect on crop yields. The objectives of this study were : i) to calibrate and evaluate the cassava simulation models DSSAT CSM-CROPSIM-Cassava and CSM-MANIHOT-Cassava to simulate the yields of the BRS Formosa cassava cultivar and analyze the sensitivity of these models ; ii) to apply the DSSAT CSM-CROPSIM-Cassava model to determine cassava yields in the Brazilian Semi-arid region (SAB), under actual (1980-2010) and future climate projections, in medium (2040-2070) and long (2070-2100) terms, for intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gases emissions (GHGs) scenarios, and to elaborate a vulnerability index (IV) for cassava production in the region ; iii) to apply the DSSAT CSM-CROPSIM-Cassava model to evaluate potential management strategies, associated to planting dates and irrigation, in order to minimize possible climate impacts, in four locations of SAB. The DSSAT CSM-CROPSIM-Cassava and CSM-MANIHOT-Cassava models presented good performance for simulating Cassava BRS Formosa yields, with mean absolute error (MAE) of 1193 and 1315 kg ha-1, and c index of 0,87 and 0,81, respectively.

Mots Clés  : Manihot esculenta Crantz Climate risk Crop simulation models Vulnerability

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Page publiée le 6 décembre 2020