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Liverpool John Moores University (2014)

Determinants of Electricity Demand in Libya : An Empirical Study for the Period 1980-2010

El sahati, KA

Titre : Determinants of Electricity Demand in Libya : An Empirical Study for the Period 1980-2010

Auteur : El sahati, KA

Université de soutenance : Liverpool John Moores University.

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2014

Résumé partiel
Energy is one of the main and most important elements for achieving social and economic development throughout the world. Electricity is one of the most essential sources of energy. The importance stems from the role of electric power in fulfilling the main consumption needs for basic energy as one of the inputs to the production process. To date, the focus of the research in the field of the demand for electricity has been mainly on developed economies. Adding to the few studies carried out in the developing economies, this study has investigated the issue in the Libyan context.

This study aimed to analyse and identify the determinants or factors affecting the demand for electricity in Libya during the period 1980-2010. The study focused on the use of ordinary least square techniques, test for co-integration and Granger Causality in constructing an empirical model of the demand function for electricity. Furthermore, there was a discussion on the external and internal determinants of projects that produce electricity in Libya as examined and analysed through a questionnaire and case study method. It also adopted a validation process achieved through focus group discussion to discuss and validate the proposed framework for the organisation of electricity.

The regressions results showed that the variables the average real price of electricity demand, the real value of the imported electrical appliances, GDP, population, the temperature difference and the lagged electricity demand explained 99 per cent of the total variation in electricity demand. The price elasticity of demand and income elasticity of demand are inelastic, that means that the Libyan economy now consumes the highest amount of electricity, and electric energy in Libya is a real necessity. Noting that the price elasticity of demand and income elasticity of demand in the long run are greater than elasticities in the short run, this means that these variables have a significant impact on the long term. According to the proposed model, the average price of electricity and the population are significant determinants of electricity demand, therefore, it implies that individuals are likely to demand electricity when the prices of electric are low, this result is confirmed from the Granger Causality results, in which it was established that a bilateral causality also exists from real values of imported electrical appliances to electricity demand and from population to electricity demand.

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