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İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (2007)

Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios Using Regional Climate Model Over Eastern Mediterranean

Önol, Barış

Titre : Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios Using Regional Climate Model Over Eastern Mediterranean

Doğu Akdeniz Üzerinde Bölgesel İklim Modeli Kullanılarak İklim Değişimi Senaryosunun Ölçek Küçültülmesi

Auteur : Önol, Barış

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2007

Résumé
In this study, the ICTP-Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) has been used to downscale present and future scenario simulations generated by the NASA-Finite Volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM) over the Eastern Mediterranean region. The IPCC Greenhouse Gases emissions, which are CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFC11-CFC12, have been taken into account for the present-day (1961-1990, RF) and the future climate change simulations (2071-2100, A2). Analysis of RF and A2 simulations for temperature and precipitation was divided into two group which are spatial distribution analysis and country average analysis. In A2 simulation, during summer, temperature increase is as large as 7 °C over the Balkan countries. However, the corresponding changes throughout the entire domain are approximately 3-4 °C thus, much more than that of winter. Most dramatic change for Turkey is more than 5 °C summer warming over the Aegean region. Projected precipitation changes in winter indicates that significant increase which appears to be related to enhanced orographic precipitation driven by flow pattern change along the east coast of the Black Sea. There is also significant precipitation decrease over Greece (32%), southern Turkey (34%), and along the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. Analyses of A2 simulation show that combined effect of P-E (Precipitation minus Evapotranspiration, %30) and snow amount decrease can cause significant problems for Euphrates-Tigris basin.

Mots clés : Climate Change Regional Climate Modeling Downscaling Climate Scenarios

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