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İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (2002)

Meteorological Drought Modelling And Application To Turkey

Sırdaş, Sevinç

Titre : Meteorological Drought Modelling And Application To Turkey

Meteorolojik Kuraklık Modellemesi Ve Türkiye Uygulaması

Auteur : Sırdaş, Sevinç

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2002

Droughts are among the most significant natural hazards that might damage human life and property under different meteorological and environmental conditions. Droughts are precipitation deficit related phenomena and their continuation for extended periods leads to water shortages in demand meeting, agricultural food deterioration concerning both quantity and quality aspects, social disruptions in addition to economically undesirable consequences. The simplest methodology of temporal drought assessment is the standardized precipitation index (SPI) which is used to quantify the precipitation deficit for several time scales, i.e. time averaging periods. On the basis of SPI, a drought event is defined for each time scale as a period in which the SPI is continuously negative and the SPI reaches a value of -1.0 or less. The SPI is commonly used for the identification of various drought characteristics such as the duration, magnitude, and intensity at different standard truncation levels. The relationships between the drought duration and magnitude are provided in the form of scatter diagrams with the best straight-line fits. These are obtained for different truncation levels. In real-time drought monitoring across Turkey, minimum and maximum of these drought descriptors should be mapped in order to identify areal drought stricken and wet areas so as to transfer water from wet to dry regions. Precipitation based drought description has been extended to triple-variable additionally including temperature and humidity time series. It is possible to find the precipitation-temperature-humidity descriptor at a site through standard precipitation index contour lines based on temperature and humidity values. Such contours can be prepared for any base precipitation value but in this study average precipitation value is adopted as the truncation level. In addition, the SPI have some problems caused by standardized precipitation index series and same truncation levels of each studied stations. Therefore, a new approach is developed. This prepared approach called as drought proportion and adds to the SPI truncation levels.


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