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İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (2012)

Karun (iran), Upper Basin Flood Analysis

ABDOLLAHZADEHMORADİ Yasin

Titre : Karun (iran), Upper Basin Flood Analysis

Karun (iran) Üst Havzası’nda Taşkın Analizi

Auteur : ABDOLLAHZADEHMORADİ Yasin

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2012

Résumé partiel
Flooding is when the water level in a creek, river, lake or the sea rises and covers land that is usually dry. Whilst some floods occur without problem, others are devastating, causing large-scale destruction and significant loss of life. Flooding is experienced all over the world and in some countries flooding occurs regularly. Floods are the natural disasters that ruin humanity. For this reason, since very old times people have used certain flood precautions to protect their property. The aim of flood frquency analysis is to predict the flood discharge for a known period in a flood event for planning and desiening of reservior, river basins, bridge, dams, weirs, channels, water supply systems, culverts, etc. Frequency analysis is a technique of fitting a probability distribution to a series of observations for defining the probabilities of future occurrences of some events of interest, e.g., an estimate of a flood magnitude corresponding to a chosen risk of failure. The use of this technique has played an important role in engineering practice. The assumptions of independence and stationarity are necessary conditions to proceed with such analyses. The 18th largest country in the world in terms of area at 1,648,195 km2 , Iran has a population of around 78 million. It is a country of articular geopolitical significance owing to its location in the Middle East and central Eurasia. Iran is bordered on the north by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. As Iran is alittoral state of the Caspian Sea. Iran is bordered on the east by Afghanistan and Pakistan, on the south by the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, on the west by Iraq and on the northwest by Turkey. Tehran is the capital, the country s largest city and the political, cultural, commercial and industrial center of the nation. In this study, flood frequency analysis has been observed in the upper Karun (IRAN) Basin and annual maximum discharge specification of 14 station from the basin have been studied. The largest river by discharge in Iran, the Karun River s watershed covers 65,230 square kilometres in parts of two Iranian provinces. The river is around 950 kilometres long and has an average discharge of 575 cubic metres per second. There are a number of dams on the Karun River, mainly built to generatehydroelectric power and provide flood control. Various methods has been applied to snapshot peak discharge values of this 18-36 year recording time stations. L-moment, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient (PPCC) tests have been applied to each station’s data and found the most appropriate distribution. Estimation the value of the flood in each station for 50, 100, 200 and 500-year return intervals with two and three parameter distributions.

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