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İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (2013)

Montly Inflow Prediction For Terkos Lake By Various Methods

TÜRKOĞLU Halil İbrahim

Titre : Montly Inflow Prediction For Terkos Lake By Various Methods

Terkos Gölüne Gelen Aylık Debinin Çeşitli Metotlarla Tahmini

Auteur : TÜRKOĞLU Halil İbrahim

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2013

Résumé partiel
Throughout human history, water has been one of the most important factors that played a major role not only during natural disasters (floods, drought, desertification) but also in the development of human thought. Today, it has the same importance. It is for sure that no artificial matter can be used instead of water in the future, which makes water more significant. For this reason, it is a must to pay more attention to the balance of use and delivery of water. The utilizable amount of water is running low due to the development of technology along with increasing human population . The use of water must be planned smartly according to the uses of water, which is one of the most important substances for a society’s economical, social and industrial development. It is necessary to apply scientific methods while using water both individullay and in common in order to derive benefits from it. Today, the need for water is increasing due to explosion in population and development of industries. People need water and energy for living and running factories and industries. As the demand for water increases, there emerges an urgent need for the use of water sources in an optimum way. In our country, water might be a big source of considirable income if water sources systems are operated well. It is necessary to make decisions and analyze water sources systematically in advance to benefit efficiently from the projects which are in the planning process. Thus, potential problems can easily be predicted and necessary precautions can be taken. Moreover, different alternative ways could be followed and the best solutions could be searced. Although we are in the beginning of 21st century, there isn’t accurate data about water volume, inflow and conditions in many countries. As a result of this, it is very hard to define and calculate total water reserve of the world. As 97 % of water is salty in the world, it is unusable for agriculture and daily consumption. The remaining 3 % is fresh water. Unfortunately, this amount is not delivered equally all around the world. For this reason, a lot of regional and personal difficulties occur. Eventually, there is a need for planning and building infrastructures, and getting the water to the desired regions. Hydraulic events are on a large scale and they have many uncertainties. As a result, it is impossible to carry out experiments in laboratories. For this reason, it is fundamental to record hydraulic variables frequently in nature as historical time series. In engineering water structures, incoming water data amount is needed. Predicting the amount of water in the future at a specific time plays an important role in operating catching areas which controls water floods, determining potential of rivers and understanding how the production will be affected during dry seasons for hydroelectric dams. Different prediction methods can be used to determine the amount of water in the future.


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