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Titre : Run Analysis Of Istanbul’S Rainfall

İstanbul Yağışlarının Gidişler Analizi

Auteur : CANGEL Tuğba

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2010

Résumé partiel
The effects of drought takes a big place in humans social-economic life. While drought restricts the standarts of the life, it has big effects on the physical and psychological life. For these reasons, it is very important to investigate the dry term lengths and the total rainfall needed in that term. In this study, using the monthly and annual rainfall data observed at 8 rainfall observation station of Meteorology, negative run lengths (dry term lengths), negative run sums (total rainfall needed) and run intensities are found out for two thershold levels (q=0.3 and q=0.5). Firstly, for two thershold levels are obtained for monthly data. Run analysis is applied for the thershold levels. Run lengths, run sums and run intensities are obtained for thershold levels. Mean, standard deviation of the calculated data and the correlation coeffifient between run sum-run length and between run length-run intensity are obtained. The correlation coefficients are compared with the studies maden pastly. For thershold level q=0.5, the longest run length is obtained as n=12 in Sarıyer Station. The frequently run length has found out as n=1 in Göztepe (Kartal) Station and repeated 117 times. The maximum run sum is calculated as 2880.88mm in n=2 in Göztepe (Kartal) Station. . For thershold level q=0.3, the longest run length is obtained as n=8 in Şile Station. The frequently run length has found out as n=1 in Göztepe (Kartal) Station and repeated 136 times. The maximum run sum is calculated 2396.68 mm in n=1 in Bahçeköy Station. Secondly, the monthly rainfall-time graphics are drawen for 12 months of every station. After that trend analysis is maden on these graphics. After that analysis the increasing and dicreasing months are determined. After that analysis we can say that, the rainfall is decreasing in autumn months. In May, June and July, we can generally say that the rainfall is increasing. The longest negative trend term is 9 months in Atatürk station.

Mots clés : run analysis run sum run length run intensity correlation drought drought period

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