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İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (2009)

Dry Term Analysis Of Istanbul’s Rainfall

Dikici, Mehmet

Titre : Dry Term Analysis Of Istanbul’s Rainfall

İstanbul Yağışlarının Kurak Dönem Analizi

Auteur : Dikici, Mehmet

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2009

Résumé
In this study, using the annual rainfall data observed at 5 rainfall observation station of Meteorology and at 6 rainfall observation station of ISKI, negative run lenghts and probability mass functions of annual rainfall are found out by the theory of Run Analysis. Return periods of the longest dry terms are estimated. Firstly, stations independence and serial dependence situations were examined individually. Negative run lenghts and return periods of dry term are found out for the threshold levels, q=0.5, 0.4, and 0.3. The threshold levels are obtained by the adoption of normal and lognormal distribution of annual rainfall empirically. Secondly, the case of serially and mutually dependent two locations is investigated. Threshold level is only determined empirically. Joint negative run lenghts are found for the threshold level q=0.5. Lastly, the case of serially and mutually dependent three, four and five stations situation is investigated. Threshold level is only found empirically. Joint negative run lenghts are found for the threshold level q=0.5. For five stations, theoretical values cannot be calculated since probability P(X1jX2j...X5j) is unknown. For this reason only, mean and variance of observed are calculated.

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