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İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (2001)

Analyses Of Drought Of Annual Rainfall In Istanbul

Erkuş, M. Kemal

Titre : Analyses Of Drought Of Annual Rainfall In Istanbul

İstanbul Yıllık Yağışlarının Kuraklık Analizi

Auteur : Erkuş, M. Kemal

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2001

Résumé
In this study, it is done for drought analyses by using synthetic values which are made by stochastic models for annual total rainfall values of 5 meteorological stations in Istanbul. First of all, Statistical parameters for values of stations are gained, the annual total rainfall are used for making a model by autoregressive model for many stations, then values of synthetic annual total rainfall for these stations are produced by this model. These synthetic values are divided into annual standart terms for 20, 50, 100 and 500 ; the average of the values is accepted as limit values for drought and analyses of drought is done. The longest dry term in these standart period is determined with risks and probabilities of the rainfall deficiency from average of the most dry year and values of the biggest total rainfall deficiency in a dry period.

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