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İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (2017)

Climate Change Impact On Precipitation-temperature In Turkey And Drought Analysis : Akarcay Case Study

Dabanlı, İsmail

Titre : Climate Change Impact On Precipitation-temperature In Turkey And Drought Analysis : Akarcay Case Study

Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliğinin Yağış-sıcaklığa Etkisi Ve Kuraklık Analizi : Akarçay Örneği

Auteur : Dabanlı, İsmail

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2017

Résumé partiel
This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature in the Akarcay basin and so drought assessment over whole Turkey mainland. The application contents of the thesis consist three basic chapters. The first chapter is related to statistical downscaling climate model setup and future predictions of climate variables (precipitation and temperature). The statistical climate downscaling model suggested by the Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) is further developed and applied to predict monthly precipitations and temperatures. The spatial variability of the model is controlled by the Regional Dependence Function (RDF) and temporal variability of the model is controlled by Markov Whitening Process (MWP). The RDF is implemented for the spatial pattern and the Markov Whitening Process (MWP) for temporal downscaling of Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios. The impacts of climate change on monthly precipitation and temperature are studied by SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios, which are downloaded from Max Plank Institute (EH40PYC) and Hadley Center (HadCM3). The prediction results indicate that mean monthly precipitations may not change in future, however, extreme precipitation may increase. Temperature predictions revealed that mean annual temperatures have been increasing in (0.3–0.4) % percent per year. Future precipitation and temperature predictions are tested for validation. The downscaling model has reasonably acceptable skill in highly accurate precipitation and temperature estimation from 2011 to 2100 with regard to standard deviation ratio (SDR), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS) criteria. The future prediction variables’ mean and standard deviation estimations for EH40PYC and HadCM3 (A2 and B2) scenarios yield less than 5% error. The comprehensive trend analysis is the main subject of the second application chapter. The main purposes of this chapter are to provide trend analysis on both observation and prediction variables in Akarcay basin to identify the comparison between the Innovative-Şen and classical trend analyses. Additionally, trend envelope lines at ±5% and ±10% levels are suggested for the first time on the innovative trend template. The superiority of Innovative-Şen method on other classical trend tests is supported by outputs of analysis. Moreover, Innovative-Şen trend methodology is implemented on surface flow (runoff), precipitation, temperature and relative humidity records in Ergene Basin in order to obtain detailed trend information and illustrate model practicability in any area easily. The common outputs of these trend analyses are that temperature and extreme precipitation values in increasing trend manners at different ratios. Finally, the last application chapter of the thesis consists of spatial and temporal drought assessment over whole Turkey mainland.

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