Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Master → Turquie → SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEM OF THE EUPHRATES - TIGRIS BASIN

İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (2019)

SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEM OF THE EUPHRATES - TIGRIS BASIN

ZEYNALZADEH Mahsa

Titre : SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEM OF THE EUPHRATES - TIGRIS BASIN WATER RESOURCES UNDER A CHANGING CLIMATE

Değı̇şen İklı̇m Şartları Altında Fırat - Dı̇cle Havzasında Su Kaynaklarının Sürdürülebı̇lı̇rlı̇ğı̇ Sorunu

Auteur : ZEYNALZADEH Mahsa

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Master of Sciences (MS) 2019

Résumé partiel
The global and regional hydrological cycle can be affected by temperature changes in the coming years. In the regions where the water cycle depends on the snowmelt, these fluctuations can be more than other areas due to the effects of increasing temperature on snow cover and seasonal runoff. There are many studies about the consequences and threats of climate change on water sustainability and hydrological cycle around the world. However, the quantity and quality of the data that can be used in related studies has been affected by the insufficient measurement networks and trouble of upkeep of the accessible hydro-meteorological stations. Moreover, regional conflicts and local disputes can seriously complicate field survey in some of these regions. The Euphrates and Tigris River Basin (ETB) has been affected by climate change, and it suffers from all the aforementioned shortcomings. The ETB is a single transboundary watercourse system located in the Middle East. The basin includes two snow- fed rivers called the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, and its water recourses are used for different aims including domestic use, irrigation, hydroelectric power generation, etc. Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran are the main riparian countries in the ETB. These countries have started development projects in the basin since 1960s. In this sense, the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) by Turkey has been started for agricultural and hydropower development in the region. These anthropogenic factors and increasing population, together with negative impacts of climate change, will cause mismatches between water demand and water supply in the basin. This study, by utilizing the outputs of GCM (Global Climate Model) and RCM (Regional Climate Model) simulations, aims to contribute to the understanding of future climate variations and their effects on the future of the water resource sustainability in the ETB. Annual time series of climate data provided by Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were used to determine the impacts of climate change in the ETB. In other words, outputs of GCMs and RCMs were used to understand the effects of the climate change on regional water budget in the future (periods of 2016-2035, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100) with respect to past climate (period of 1986-2005). Analysis of the changes in the hydrometeorological parameters (temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and net water flux output) were provided using the the outputs from the global and regional climate models based on the territories of the riparian countries in the ETB (i.e., Iran, Syria, Turkey and Iraq). Moreover, the changes in 10 climate indices based on riparian country territories in the ETB were analyzed using output of CMIP5 models for all three periods.

Présentation

Version intégrale (12,7 Mb)

Page publiée le 19 décembre 2020