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sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Titre : Assessing the impact of human behaviour on reservoir system performance using dynamic co-evolution

Auteur : Shanono, Nura Jafar

Université de soutenance : University of the Witwatersrand

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy, 2019

Résumé partiel
Water resource systems management entails the coordination of hydrologic, infrastructural and human activities to plan, develop and supply water efficiently and sustainably. Hydrologic and human behaviour involve high levels of uncertainty and therefore pose unique challenges to water management. In reservoir yield and operation analysis, hydrologic uncertainties are usually incorporated in risk analysis using stochastically generated data but the impacts of human behaviour, although significant, are typically not incorporated. This study was therefore inspired by the need to quantitatively incorporate the impact of human behaviour into reservoir system performance thereby adding value to reservoir operational decision making. Unauthorised water abstraction is a significant human behaviour‐related activity and was therefore selected for this study. A socio‐hydrological model that simulates, couples and dynamically co‐evolves reservoir operation and human behaviour to assess the impact of unauthorised water abstractions on reservoir yield and operation was developed. The model quantitatively and stochastically relates fourstate drivers ; hydrological state, users’ compliance, management competence and reservoir performance. Users’ compliance and management competence were modelled statistically by a 3‐parameter skew‐normal distribution and the propensity to unauthorised water abstraction (risk perception) was modelled as a function of users’ compliance, management competence and the hydrological state. The occurrence of unauthorised water abstraction was modelled stochastically by relating a sigmoidal function of risk perception to management competence. To assess the impact of human behaviour, nine scenarios derived from the different combinations of 3 categories of users’ compliance and management competence were developed and tested. The model was applied at a monthly time step to 2 hypothetical but realistic reservoir systems that were based on 90 years of hydrology and configuration of the Elands and the Olifants River reservoir systems in South Africa. Reservoir operation for maximizing yield was optimized by applying a simulation‐optimization approach that used 3 reservoir operating rule curves defined using trigonometric and simple linear functions. Shuffled complex evolution (SCE‐UA) was used for optimisation

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