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University of KwaZulu-Natal (2019)

Causality analysis and physio-economic impacts of climate change on maize production in South Africa

Magodora, Tatenda Lysias.

Titre : Causality analysis and physio-economic impacts of climate change on maize production in South Africa

Auteur : Magodora, Tatenda Lysias.

Université de soutenance : University of KwaZulu-Natal

Grade : Master of Science in Agriculture (Agricultural Economics) 2019

Résumé partiel
Agriculture, as part of the human ecological footprint on climate change, has become a serious concern because climate change has an impact on agriculture. For instance, when crop production is considered, climatic elements are influenced by greenhouse gas emissions that come from agricultural activities such as the application of synthetic fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides, as well as the use of heavy machinery in modern crop production. This study analyzed the possible causalities between climatic variables and maize production in South Africa using time series data for the period 1924 to 2016. The analysis was done using VAR Granger causality analysis to ascertain if there are feedback loops between climatic elements and maize production in South Africa. The results from the Granger analysis suggest a bidirectional causality that runs between maize production and temperature. Rainfall alone was found not to be significant in influencing maize production but a combination of both temperature and rainfall affects maize production in South Africa. The results from variance decomposition of the future forecasts suggest a relatively large magnitude of impact (13.37%) of temperature on maize production in the 3rd year of the forecast with the highest effect of 27.43% in the 15th year of forecast. The forecasted impact of rainfall on the other hand remained relatively low (below 10%) throughout the forecast period. Continued current production activities (use of synthetic fertilizers and agricultural chemicals, for example) will affect climatic variables both in the short term and in the long term, and the effects of these changes in climatic elements on maize production will be realized in the long term as revealed by the variance decomposition result.

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