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Universidad Nacional de Córdoba (2018)

Análisis de la disponibilidad de agua superficial ante distintos escenarios de oferta y demanda de la cuenca del río San Antonio, provincia de Córdoba

Alvarez, Javier

Titre : Análisis de la disponibilidad de agua superficial ante distintos escenarios de oferta y demanda de la cuenca del río San Antonio, provincia de Córdoba

Auteur : Alvarez, Javier

Université de soutenance : Universidad Nacional de Córdoba

Grade : Maestría en Ciencias de la Ingeniería : Mención en Recursos Hídricos 2018

Résumé
The San Roque lake is one of the most economically important artifitial reservoirs in the Province of Córdoba (Argentina) and it was witnessed the sudden anthropological development along its coasts. This lake, among its multiple uses, is the main source of fresh water for Córdoba City (Argentina). One of the main tributaries of this reservoir is the San Antonio River, considered as the main source of fresh water supply for the South of Punilla population and industries. However, during the dry seasons in the historical period, the entire flow of the river has been extracted in the weeks before the rainy season. In this context, the thesis objective is to analyze the impact of the San Antonio runoff variations on the water availability, based on different rainfall and temperature projections for different Greenhouse Emissions projection pathways. To achieve this objective, the basin hydrological behavior was simulated using a continuous and distributed hydrological model, modelling hypothetical precipitation scenarios and Global Climate Models scenarios of precipitation and temperature, after being biascorrected and spatially downscaled using statistical techniques. The main results obtained include : a) Based on the observational hydro-climatological rainfall patterns, determination of the Water Scarcity Risk, critical between July and September ; b) Uncertainty quantification of the Climate Models in the Córdoba Province and, by analysing the relationships between historical climate models estimations and terrain-recorded data, select the models with better performance ; c) Bias-correction and downscaling of temperature and precipitation Global Climate Model data, according to the observed data. After this, coupling them to a continuous and distributed hydrological model in order to simulate runoff. As a conclusion, it could be assumed that, if the population to be supplied with fresh water doubles in 30 years and triples in 45 years, using the Climate Models information, the days with Water Scarcity Risk would increase, although not in a directly proportional way.

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