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Accueil du site → Doctorat → Australie → 2019 → Probabilistic approach of reservoir level depletion induced by drought

Sadia Rahman

Probabilistic approach of reservoir level depletion induced by drought

Sadia Rahman

Titre : Probabilistic approach of reservoir level depletion induced by drought

Auteur : Sadia Rahman

Université de soutenance : RMIT University

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2019

Résumé partiel
Droughts are one of the most complicated natural disasters on earth. The repetitive occurrence of droughts has enormous adverse impacts on different aspects of human lives and natural environment. Careful monitoring and early warning systems can assist in the development of effective drought management strategies. Therefore, it is of immense significance to have a full understanding of the characteristics of a developing drought (severity, frequency etc.) before planning any drought response measures. The main aim of this research is to develop a methodology to evaluate reservoir storage levels during drought periods in a probabilistic way. In doing so, a case study was conducted of the Upper Yarra reservoir, which is located in the upper part of the Yarra River catchment in Australia. In order to identify the impacts of drought on this reservoir, it is important to have detailed knowledge of the general drought conditions surrounding this reservoir, as major portions of its inflow are harvested from neighbouring areas. Therefore, a comprehensive investigation of drought characteristics over this area is essential. Six rainfall and six streamflow stations near the Upper Yarra reservoir were selected for evaluating meteorological and hydrological drought events using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Hydrological Drought Index (SHDI), respectively. Both of these indices detected drought events successfully when applied to the data. Univariate and bivariate frequency analysis of drought duration and severity were carried out using the Gumbel-Hougaard copula. A probabilistic assessment of the reservoir storage condition was carried out by joint consideration of probability of initial storage volume and probability of drought events affecting inflow to the reservoir. Therefore, frequency analysis of drought events of inflow to the reservoir with particular severity and duration were conducted before applying them to the reservoir system model with specific initial water levels.

Mots clés : droughts reservoir probability severity duration frequency Water Resources Engineering Civil Engineering not elsewhere classified Date/Year Published


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