Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Titre : Simplified models for analysing the risk of climate change on Australia’s sheep pastoral zone

Auteur : Clark, Anthony

Université de soutenance : Australian National University

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2008

Résumé partiel
Climate change impact assessment is a broad integrative science that encompasses climate and agricultural research, and related disciplines in mathematics, biology and socio-economics. The research program adopted a focus within this broad field to investigate the use of simplified or deductive-conceptual m.odels of soil water, pasture growth and sheep live weight change. The purpose was to assess projected climate change impacts across Australia’s southern grazing zone. The research is based on the strategy of scaling up an agricultural impact model to a broader level, rather than scaling down climate change projections to a finer level to drive complex farm scale simulations. The research has two main phases : the initial and principal focus is on the practice of agricultural modelling, with the aim of developing a well calibrated simplified impact model suitable for broad scale application ; the second phase of research follows from these efforts by applying this model in a regional scale climate change impact assessment. The main findings of the research program can be grouped around these two themes.

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