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Australian National University (2013)

Salmonella, weather and climate change in Australia

Butler, Ainslie Jane

Titre : Salmonella, weather and climate change in Australia

Auteur : Butler, Ainslie Jane

Université de soutenance : Australian National University

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2013

Global temperatures have increased over the previous century, due in large part to human actions. Changes in climate and increases in the variability and distribution of weather patterns are expected to have both direct and indirect consequences on human health. The incidence and distribution of infectious diseases in Australia is expected to shift as a result of increasing temperatures and shifts in precipitation and relative humidity patterns. Previous research has demonstrated a relationship between Salmonella infection and weather. This thesis investigates this relationship at a level of detail that has not previously been explored. This thesis uses local, daily data to explore the relationship between weather and Salmonella infection across Australia. Using notified cases of Salmonella infection from the national surveillance authority, and transformed weather station data from 1991 to 2004, a positive relationship between increasing temperatures and Salmonella infection, and a variable influence of changes in precipitation and humidity in Australia are determined at a level of detail previously unexplored. These relationships are demonstrated to vary across the climate regions of Australia with a 16% to 77% increase in the rate of Salmonella infection estimated for an increase in the average temperature from 15u00B0C to 20 u00B0C. The most positive influence of increasing temperatures on Salmonella infection is modelled in the tropical, warm humid regions of northern Australia. There is also variation in the relationship between infection and weather evident in the analysis of specific serovars (Salmonella Typhimurium in northern Australia and Salmonella Mississippi in Tasmania).


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