Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Doctorat → Espagne → 2019 → Assessing impacts of potential climate change scenarios in water resources systems depending on natural storage from snowpacks and/or groundwater

Universidad de Granada (2019)

Assessing impacts of potential climate change scenarios in water resources systems depending on natural storage from snowpacks and/or groundwater

Collados Lara, Antonio Juan

Titre : Assessing impacts of potential climate change scenarios in water resources systems depending on natural storage from snowpacks and/or groundwater

Auteur : Collados Lara, Antonio Juan

Université de soutenance : Universidad de Granada

Grade : Doctoral Tesis 2019

Résumé
The objective of the pre-doctoral research undertaken and presented in this thesis was to advance the development and application of methodologies for evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources stored naturally in aquifers and/or in snowpack in systems covering large tracts of land. The snow dynamics of the Spanish Sierra Nevada mountain range were studied, as well as potential future recharge scenarios in aquifers on a national scale. The majority of scientific studies of the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources have been developed for aquifer scale systems. In contrast, snow dynamics are usually studied for specific mountain slopes or basins, while analyses on the scale of an entire mountain range are unusual. Data in alpine systems are usually scarce, due to poor accessibility and limited funds. A methodology is proposed to estimate the optimal siting of monitoring points. Assessing the impacts of climate change requires local or regional climate scenarios adapted to the system to be generated. A methodology is proposed that uses drought statistics to define these scenarios. A review of the state of the art highlights that, despite the importance of droughts in the management of arid and semi-arid zones, drought statistics are not considered in the generation of future local and regional scenarios. Although there are numerous analyses of droughts for historical periods, few are dedicated to future scenarios. It is precisely these requirements and data gaps that provided the motive to develop this research work. The methods described above were applied to propagate the impacts of potential future scenarios of climate change to snow cover area and groundwater recharge. The simulation using the cellular automata model and the future climate series generated for the 2071-2100 horizon considering the RCP8.5 emission scenario, shows significant reductions in snow cover area in the Sierra Nevada – around 60% on average. Moreover, the future temperature and precipitation series generated indicate that the potential climate change in this alpine system at the highest elevations will be greater in the case of temperature and smaller in the case of precipitation. Propagation of net recharge using the empirical model predicts a reduction in recharge over 99.8% of peninsular Spain, distributed in a very heterogeneous way. A greater than 10% reduction in recharge was indicated over more than two thirds of the territory, while the average reduction predicted is 12%. These results reflect the need to establish proper measures to devise water policies based on the adaptation and mitigation of the effects of climate change on water resources systems.

Présentation

Version intégrale (21,3 Mb)

Page publiée le 7 février 2021