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Universidade de Coimbra (2019)

ASSESSING THE IMPACT ON THE RELIABILITY OF THE INCREASE OF RENEWABLE PENETRATION WITH WELL-BEING ANALYSIS The Case Of Porto Santo

Oliveira, João Santos de

Titre : ASSESSING THE IMPACT ON THE RELIABILITY OF THE INCREASE OF RENEWABLE PENETRATION WITH WELL-BEING ANALYSIS The Case Of Porto Santo

AVALIAÇÃO DO IMPACTO NA FIABILIDADE DO AUMENTO DA PENETRAÇÃO DE RENOVÁVEL COM WELL-BEING ANALYSIS O Caso de Porto Santo

Auteur : Oliveira, João Santos de

Université de soutenance : Universidade de Coimbra

Grade : Mestrado Integrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores 2019

Résumé
One of the most important parameters in the evaluation of any electrical system it’s its reliability. With the increasing penetration of highly variable and intermittent renewable energy sources (solar and wind) and, also, the reduction of conventional sources and the predictable increasing demand, improving or even keeping up the reliability indexes will be a challenging task. This will be even more demanding in small isolated power systems as the ones seen in many small islands.Taking this into account, a software tool was developed using the MATLAB environment, capable to perform Chronological and Non-Chronological Monte Carlo Simulations combined with the Well-Being Analysis (WBA) for assessing the reliability of power systems independently of the existing technologies. This analysis sorts the system in 3 distinct states, Healthy State, Marginal State and Risk State. WBA is used because conventional analysis only assesses the success and the failure - healthy or risk state -, while an intermediate state - marginal - gives a more suitable review and, therefore, should be considered.The tool (for the Chronological Method) can work with existing generation and/or demand data, or it can be created using system generator’s data (Capacity Outages and respective probabilities) combined with information regarding resource availability, maintenance, among others. For the Non-Chronological method, the Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT) is created using the generators’ capacity outages and respective probabilities, previously mentioned, and then, with a N number of simulations the WBA is completed.The tool was tested and validated using the RBTS where the indexes for the base values are calculated and compared, with a load increase of 5% per year later added.Finally, this tool will be applied in studies regarding the electrical system of the island of Porto Santo, Madeira, Portugal, where some variables of the installed capacity of conventional power sources, in this case thermal diesel, and the increased of solar and/or wind power in the system, will be tested. Concluding that the Capacity Credit (CC) is null for the intermittent sources since the installed capacity is too low.

Mots clés  : Fiabilidade ; Well-Being Analysis ; Simulações Monte Carlo ; Cronológicos e Não-Cronológicos ; Fontes Intermitentes ; Reliability ; Well-Being Analysis ; Monte Carlo Simulations ; Chronological and Non-Chronological ; Intermittent Sources

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Page publiée le 26 mars 2021