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Universidade Nova de Lisboa (2018)

Spatiotemporal analysis of forest fire risk models : a case study for a greek island

Sakellariou, Stavros

Titre : Spatiotemporal analysis of forest fire risk models : a case study for a greek island

Auteur : Sakellariou, Stavros

Université de soutenance : Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Grade : Mestrado em Tecnologias Geoespaciais 2018

Résumé
Forest fires are a natural phenomenon which might have severe implications on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. Consequently, the integrated protection of these ecosystems from forest fires is of high priority. The aim of the project lies in the development of two preventive models which will act in synergy in order to effectively protect the most critical natural resource of the island, namely, the abundant forests. Thus, fire risk modeling is combined with visibility analysis, so that we may primarily protect the most susceptible territory of the study area. The corner stone of the methodology is primarily relied on the multi-criteria decision analysis. This framework applied not only for the fire risk estimation and the corresponding evolution in a context of 20 years, but for visibility analysis as well, determining the most suitable locations for the establishment of a minimum number of watchtowers. The fire risk map for 2016 indicated that 34% of the entire study area is covered by territory of low fire risk ; 27% of moderate risk ; 34% of high and very high risk, while there is a 6% of the island which is characterized by extremely fire risk. Similar conclusions can be drawn for 1996, since no significant changes have been observed, especially on the land cover types and their spatial arrangement. Based on the visibility results, more than 40% of the entire island is visible from the selected location scheme consisting of just 8 watchtowers. The intense topography constituted the most critical barrier in increasing this percentage. Some good practices to counterbalance the relative small percentage of visibility could include ; the extensive patrols in unmonitored regions through the intense road network of the island ; the adoption of drones covering the aforementioned areas, especially when extreme meteorological conditions are expect

Mots clés  : Forest fires Multi criteria analysis Fire risk Spatiotemporal analysis Visibility Geographical Information Systems Remote Sensing Skiathos island Greece

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