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UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft (2018)

Adaptation pathways for flood risk management in South Punjab, Pakistan

Khan, Hassan

Titre : Adaptation pathways for flood risk management in South Punjab, Pakistan

Auteur : Khan, Hassan

Université de soutenance : UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2018

Résumé
Floods are the most critical among all natural disasters. The different events of flooding occurring worldwide in 20thcentury caused 6.8 million human fatalities along with massive destruction of houses, infrastructure and fertile agricultural lands. The impacts of floods are increasing due to expected changes in global climate, land use, population growth and socio economic development in flood prone areas. Floods are considered as one of the major natural calamities in Pakistan. Pakistan suffered from 23 riverine floods events since 1947 after its independence. These floods took more than 8000 human lives, inundated 109,882 villages and caused huge economic losses amounting to USD 19 billion. The events of flooding that occurred in 2010 were unprecedented in the history of Pakistan. Pakistan faces the issues of lack of community participation in flood mitigation planning and implementation, lack of integration of soft and hard measures and poor institutional coordination to ensure effective flood control. This study focuses on assessment of flood risk in four districts located in southern part of Punjab province on left bank of river Indus. The potential impacts of future floods for sixty year period were analysed by taking in to the account climate change, socio economic projections and population growth. The flood extents were generated in HEC-RAS hydrodynamic models. Flood damages were estimated by using depth-damage functions developed for South Asia by European Commission, Joint Research Centre. The expected flood damages for different possible futures were estimated and expressed in form of expected annual damages from 2020-80. A combination of soft and hard prospective measures to reduce flood risk were considered and studied. The performance of measures was evaluated on economic and social acceptability criteria. The measures which performed better were combined in to adaptation pathways. The adaptation pathways approach was modified here in this research and adaptation pathways without tipping points were used because of lack of any well-defined flood risk standards in study area. The transfer of measures in adaptation pathways were made to reduce expected annual damage. When it was realised that flood risk has increased significantly as compared to baseline year, the transfer from current action to new action was proposed. The possible adaptation pathways were valued for all set of futures on the basis of net present value and benefit to cost ratio. The strategy which begins with raising of houses in five year flood plain (Phase 1) and switches to two combined measures raising of houses in five year flood plain (Phase 2) and construction of Diamir-Bhahsa dam in 2040, emerged as the robust strategy because it score highest in all possible future scenarios studied in this research

Sujets  : floods flood risk management river floods HEC-RAS Pakistan

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