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UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft (2017)

Historical analysis of change in rainfall, flow regime and river morphology [Case study : Zambezi Delta]

Singh, Amit

Titre : Historical analysis of change in rainfall, flow regime and river morphology [Case study : Zambezi Delta]

Auteur : Singh, Amit

Université de soutenance : UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2017

Résumé partiel
Economic development coupled with climate change presents an increased risk to delta ecosystems and communities as they alter the flow regime and river morphology. To mitigate these impacts it is very important to assess and distinguish, using a consistent methodology, between, the impacts of climate change, natural variability and anthropogenic activities on river hydrology and morphology. The upper and middle Zambezi River is heavily regulated with Kariba Dam (1959), Cahora Bassa Dam (1974) and Itezhitezhi, Dam (1977). Construction of these dams has affected the natural flow regimes ofriver. Post-regulation low flows during the dry season has been elevated and wet season peak flows reduced. This has had profound effect on the delta geomorphology and biodiversity. This study examines historical changes in rainfall,water levels, river morphology and flood inundation in the Zambezi delta, Mozambique, in order to better understand the natural dynamics of the system, identify major changes and the possible drivers of change. It uses a consistent methodology of statistical methods (Mann Kendall and Pettit test) to delineate rainfall and water level trends. It assesses monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall characteristics and trends at Tete, Mutarara, Mopeia and Chinde. Water level characteristics and trends at Tete are analysed for the period 1955 to 2015 and pre-regulation/post regulation water level characteristics at Caia are assessed. Serial correlation was adjusted using Variance correction pre-whitening method (VCPW). Remote sensing analysis for river morphology and flood inundation studies was carried out using Google Earth Engine based Aqua monitor and Landsat water mask tools for the period 1985 - 2016, however this analysis was guided by availability of Landsat images for the study area during each year. Possible relationships between rainfall, Cahora Bassa combined release, water level and flood extent in the Zambezi delta were assessed through correlation analysis

Sujets  : river morphology data analysis water resources management Zambezi River

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