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Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) 2020

Spatially explicit WEF modelling in transboundary river basins : A new methodology to study the value of cooperation in regional water management

Verhagen, J.D.

Titre : Spatially explicit WEF modelling in transboundary river basins : A new methodology to study the value of cooperation in regional water management

Auteur : Verhagen, J.D.

Université de soutenance : Delft University of Technology (TU Delft)

Grade : Master 2020

Résumé partiel
Water, energy and food resources are fundamental for human survival and are critical for supporting economic development. However, ensuring adequate supply is a major concern for the entire world, specifically in some countries and regions. Under the pressure of population growth, economic development, international trade, urbanization, diversifying diets, cultural and technological changes, global projections indicate a significant further increase in demand for water, energy and food over the next decades. Moreover, the development of these water, energy and food resources are intertwined. As a result, when demand grows, but resources are no longer abundant, competition between sectors increases. Especially in regions with upstream-downstream water connectivity, a national sectoral approach may result in friction, a decrease in mutual trust and international conflicts. On the other hand, the synergistic effects associated with regional resource coordination can contribute to improved resource availability and downstream livelihoods.To overcome the shortcomings of the current generation of hydro-economic and WEF-nexus models in describing resource cooperation at regional level, in this study a new WEF-framework has been developed in which the heterogeneity in agro-climatic, socio-economic and resource availability, as well as the description of water and electric conveyance infrastructure is included spatially and temporally explicitly. The aim of this research is to create an integrated WEF-framework and to investigate the possibilities for, the relevance of and the challenges and difficulties associated with the implementation of such an integrated model.The proposed framework includes the river conveyance infrastructure in a multi state river basin by means of a dynamic network model. In addition, a novel approach is used to describe both irrigated and rainfed agriculture in great detail on a regional scale, enabling a good representation of crops with multiple growing cycles per season, a distinction between annual and perennial crop management and the inclusion of agricultural losses. The framework is implemented as a model predictive control (MPC) problem. In this control problem, the reservoir operations and agricultural planning resulting in maximum economic value creation with the available resources are determined with the help of a non-linear problem solver.

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Page publiée le 19 avril 2021