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University of Groningen (2016)

Kenya takes the lead : forecasting the fertility transitions in Eastern Africa.

Van der Hoef, E

Titre : Kenya takes the lead : forecasting the fertility transitions in Eastern Africa.

Auteur : Van der Hoef, E

Université de soutenance : University of Groningen.

Grade : Master Population Studies 2016

Résumé
This thesis aims to answer the question : How can the fertility transition of Kenya be used to predict those of other similar countries ? The fertility transition of Kenya has been identified as a forerunner in the Eastern African region. The question is answered in three steps : first, the trends of selected indicators in Malawi, Burundi, Zambia, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Uganda and Zimbabwe are compared to the Kenyan trends. The indicators that influence the TFR and were chosen based on the extensive body of literature on the subject are (1) educational attainment of women, (2) contraceptive prevalence, (3) family planning programmes success, (4) Infant Mortality rate and (5) HIV/AIDS prevalence. Second, the steepness of the curve is calculated, and projected until 2050. Last, the outcomes of these projections are compared to the UN Prognoses. The data are from the Demographic and Health Survey and the UN Estimates and Prognoses.

Mots clés  : Fertility !transition ; !Eastern Africa ; !Kenya ; !TFR ; !projection ; !Demographic !Transition !Theory ; ! Demographic !and !Health !Survey ; !United !Nations !Estimates !& !Prognoses

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