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Accueil du site → Doctorat → Inde → 2008 → An economic analysis of vulnerability and impact of climate change and planning for sustainable food security in different agro climatic zones of Tamil nadu

Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (2008)

An economic analysis of vulnerability and impact of climate change and planning for sustainable food security in different agro climatic zones of Tamil nadu

Senthilnathan S.

Titre : An economic analysis of vulnerability and impact of climate change and planning for sustainable food security in different agro climatic zones of Tamil nadu

Auteur : Senthilnathan S.

Université de soutenance : Tamil Nadu Agricultural University

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Agricultural Economics 2008

Résumé partiel
Climate change mainly affects the agricultural production and available water resources for agricultural activities in the future years. It can be observed that the vulnerability of the people to climate change is very high in the high rainfall zone and southern zone in the recent period as compared to the other agro climatic zones. Kharif rice is projected to decrease both in terms of area and productivity, resulting in lower production levels of about 17 per cent in 2050 and 8 per cent in 2020 from existing levels. In summer season rice production is projected to decrease about 22 and 37 per cent in 2020 and 2050. Sorghum area is projected to increase 0.52 and 13 per cent in medium and long term climate change scenarios. This leads to increase in production levels of 1.26 and 29.31 per cent in medium and long term projections from the existing levels. Groundnut yields are projected to decline by 1.07 per cent in medium term and 5.92 per cent in long term. Total production of sugarcane is projected to decline 8.66 per cent in the medium term and a 16.86 per cent decline in the long term impact of climate change. When land is the only constraint, the maximum attainable rice production in Tamil Nadu is 16.19 million tonnes from the current level production of five million tonnes with production of other crops maintained at their current level. In addition to land the available water is added as an additional constraint, rice production dropped from 16.19 million tonnes to 7.06 million tonnes when land alone is the constraint, keeping production of other crops at their current level. The above level of rice production is possible only when 44 per cent of the land area is allotted to technology level 5. Finally, it is possible to increase the total rice production by 1.58 million tonnes, which accounts for 31.23 per cent more than the existing current level from the different agro climatic regions of Tamil Nadu by imposing all the constraints such as land, water, technology, labour and capital. Net income of the farmers will also increase from 47.09 to 65.20 billion rupees. This is higher by 18.11 billion rupees and shares 38.45 per cent more income to our farmers in Tamil Nadu compared to what they are earning at present. When water is included as a constraint, technology 5 gets only 44 per cent of the land area while other technologies get around 13 per cent of the land each and about 26 per cent of the land area is left unutilized. This emphasizes the conclusion that water is the major constraint for agricultural production in Tamil Nadu.

Présentation et version intégrale (Shodhganga)

Page publiée le 29 avril 2021