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Accueil du site → Doctorat → États-Unis → 2020 → Sustainable Agricultural Development in the Western Desert of Egypt Under Climate Change : A Case Study of the Siwa Region

Utah State University (2020)

Sustainable Agricultural Development in the Western Desert of Egypt Under Climate Change : A Case Study of the Siwa Region

Moghazy, Noha Kaluarachchi, Jagath

Titre : Sustainable Agricultural Development in the Western Desert of Egypt Under Climate Change : A Case Study of the Siwa Region

Auteur : Moghazy, Noha Kaluarachchi, Jagath

Université de soutenance : Utah State University

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2020

Résumé
Egypt is facing major challenges due to the increase in population, limited water resources, and insufficient agriculture production. To combat these stresses, the Egyptian government initiated a new development project in 2015 to reclaim 1.5 million acres mostly located in the Western Desert of Egypt. The goals of this project are to increase agricultural areas enabling rural development, population resettlement from dense regions, and increase strategic crop production. The primary source of water is the non-renewable Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) which is a transboundary aquifer shared between Egypt, Libya, Sudan, and Chad. NSAS in Egypt has two aquifers ; the upper one is Post Nubian Aquifer (PNA) followed by Nubian Aquifer System (NAS). The Siwa region is one of the areas that will be reclaimed with an area of about 30,000 acres which is the focus of this research given the abundance of groundwater from NSAS. This research addressed the practical concerns of developing new and sustainable agriculture practices in Siwa under different climatic conditions. The first step is to assess the historical use of groundwater from the Nubian aquifer and the corresponding negative impacts from 1980 to 2012. Total water use is estimated then compared with the actual withdrawal to define the amount of excess water and water use efficiency. The impact of using high groundwater salinity from PNA on crop yield and revenue is analyzed. The second step is to investigate if government goals of the new project are achievable in Siwa for the next 20 years using high groundwater quality from NAS under current climatic conditions. Crop area and total water requirements for population and livestock are estimated by 2040. An optimization model is used to maximize crop production. The third step is to address the impact of climate change on agriculture productivity and crop water requirement in Siwa through this century. Regional climate models (RCMs) are used under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) ; RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Methodology provided in this research can be applied to similar regions in Egypt or elsewhere so management and adaptation options can be prepared for sustainable agricultural development.

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