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Politecnico di Torino (2021)

Multi-hazard Risk Analysis under Climate Change : West Africa Case Studies

BACCI, MAURIZIO

Titre : Multi-hazard Risk Analysis under Climate Change : West Africa Case Studies

Auteur : BACCI, MAURIZIO

Université de soutenance : Politecnico di Torino

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2021

Descriptif
The thesis contributes to the exploration of new and innovative methodologies by supporting the adaptation process to climate change and disaster risk prevention in least developed countries through the assessment of multi-hazard risk under future climate scenarios. The thesis takes its cue from two papers published during the three years of doctorate which are : i) Multihazard risk assessment for planning with climate in the Dosso Region, Niger, by Tiepolo, Maurizio ; Bacci, Maurizio ; Braccio, Sarah [1], and ii) Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at Community Level Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge in the Hodh Chargui, Mauritania, by Tiepolo, Maurizio ; Bacci, Maurizio ; Braccio, Sarah ; Bechis, Stefano [2]. Both papers deal with the current multi-hazard risk assessment, at a regional scale basis, in these two territories. A part of the chapters 3.1, 3.2, 3.6, 4.1, 4.2, 4.6 and 5 are wrote considering the previous and cited papers.3 This thesis gathers, with a holistic and interdisciplinary approach, a review of concepts of multi-hazard risk assessment and notions about climate modeling and downscaling techniques, then, starting from the two above mentioned papers, produce the bias-corrected climatic projections datasets and develop the future multi-hazard risk assessment for the two case studies. The future scenarios are compared with the current assessment thus intercepting the most significant trends in risk evolution. The study follows on with a discussion on the obtained results. The last chapter draws conclusions on the sustainability and replicability of the method in similar contexts and its ability to support the medium-long term planning process through the identification of intervention priorities. The investigated case studies are : • Hodh El Chargui Region, Mauritania • Dosso Region, Niger

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