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University of Economics, Prague (2014)

Alternative scenarios of future development of the Mali crisis

Hankeová, Tereza

Titre : Alternative scenarios of future development of the Mali crisis

Možné scénáře budoucího vývoje v Mali

Auteur : Hankeová, Tereza

Université de soutenance : University of Economics, Prague

Grade : Master 2014

As history is focused on the past and sociology deals with the present, shouldn’t be international relations oriented towards the future ? On the concrete example of Mali crisis are demonstrated the advantages of the scenario building method, which enhances the relevance of theories of international relations. Northern Mali has been traditionally isolated geographically, politically and economically. Since the beginning of 2012, fights broke out again. The rising threat of Islamist groups was confirmed in the Sahel. This thesis primarily deals with the potential evolution of the Malian crisis, which has been caused by a complex set of interactions. The analysis of events preceding the crisis enables to define driving factors, which will continue to influence the crisis in the future. In addition are defined key uncertainties that could substantially reverse its predictable evolution. Four scenarios outlining alternative future development in northern Mali will be constructed in accordance with a chosen new scenario building method. They differ from each other by varied interactions between key actors and key unknowns and by their temporal and spatial dynamics.

Présentation (DART)

Page publiée le 19 mai 2021