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University of California, Berkeley (2017)

An Approach to Resilient Strategic Planning in the Face of Climate Change : A Case Study of Oman

Alruheili, Amna

Titre : An Approach to Resilient Strategic Planning in the Face of Climate Change : A Case Study of Oman

Auteur : Alruheili, Amna Mohammed.

Université de soutenance  : University of California, Berkeley

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2017

Résumé partiel
This research makes a significant contribution to strategic planning by introducing an approach that integrates science into the planning practices and policy-making of Oman to enable more informed and resilient development. Oman, like many of its neighbors in the Arabian Sea region, is quite vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change including : increased temperatures, erratic precipitation, desertification of much of its land mass, coastal flooding brought on by sea level rise (SLR), and increasing frequency of hazardous storms events. Throughout history, Oman has been subjected to various storms and cyclonic events that have resulted in both flash wadi flooding and high-tidal storm surge. Records show that major storms and cyclonic events have not only caused catastrophic damage to infrastructure and loss of agricultural lands and livestock, they have often resulted in loss of human life.

These events have been frequent and climate change projections indicate that they are on the increase. Northern Oman has documented evidence of major storms and cyclonic events as far back as 1890, and increasing in periodicity today (ie. 1971, 1977, 1987, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2010, 2015, 2016, and 2017). Dhofar, located in southern Oman and the geographic study region for this research, has experienced major storms and cyclonic events on a regular basis (ie. 1948, 1959, 1963, 1966, 1983, 1996, 2002, 2004, 2011, and 2015). In order to mitigate and reduce the damage caused by these events, Oman, at an early stage of economic and industrial development, must modify its approach to strategic planning and policy-making. In fact the motivation behind this research is to promote resilient planning within the strategic-development planning process already taking place in Oman by providing a better understanding of how integrating science into the process can result in a better vision for the future, and more resilient infrastructure and development in general.

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