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Accueil du site → Doctorat → États-Unis → 2020 → Impact of Historical and Future Climate Change on the Source Region of the Tigris River Basin

University of California, Davis. (2020)

Impact of Historical and Future Climate Change on the Source Region of the Tigris River Basin

Kol, Aslihan.

Titre : Impact of Historical and Future Climate Change on the Source Region of the Tigris River Basin

Auteur : Kol, Aslihan.

Université de soutenance  : University of California, Davis.

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2020

The Tigris River basin is a transboundary basin shared among Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria. The river basin contains extensive water management infrastructure and is the main source for the economic activities in the region. While the Tigris River is a vital resource for this area, scientifically sound studies are limited due to the data scarcity. This study aimed to close this research gap and was conducted to estimate the historical climate conditions and future climate change on the source region of the Tigris River basin for the 21st century. To reconstruct atmospheric and hydrologic data, dynamically downscaled regional climate modeling was utilized over the Upper Tigris, Khbour, Greater Zab, Lesser Zab, Diyala, and Adhaim sub-basins which feed into the Tigris River. A fine resolution (9 km by 9 km) hydro-climate study was used for both historical (1960–2010) and future time periods (2020–2100). For the dynamical downscaling, the non-hydrostatic Weather Forecasting (WRF) Model was implemented in this study with a sensitivity evaluation of the cumulus and planetary boundary layer parameterizations. The physically based, spatially distributed hydrological model, WEHY-HCM, was utilized for eight stations at a monthly time scale to investigate the hydrology of the sub-basins. For the historical period, the ERA 20th century data was utilized for atmospheric data reconstruction followed by calibration and validation processes of the WEHY-HCM model for each station. The validated model parameters were further used for future streamflow simulations by means of the dynamically downscaled CMIP5 products for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The CCSM4, GFDLESM2M, and MIROC5 GCM projections under these scenarios were dynamically downscaled over the study area. Finally, trend analysis of the results was conducted to investigate the changes in precipitation, temperature, and streamflow under both historical and future climate conditions. This research presents a comprehensive hydro-climate study in the data-scarce Tigris River region with a focus on the response of the precipitation, temperature, and streamflow changes to historical and future climate conditions. The outcomes generated throughout this study can contribute to the transboundary management plans of the region to reduce any negative impacts of climate change on the society and environment. Furthermore, this study describes the challenges and provides recommendations for future research.

Présentation (ProQuest)

Page publiée le 30 mai 2021