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Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (2020)

Climate Change and the Potential Economic Adaptation in Egyptian Agriculture

Yosri Nasr Ahmed Mohamed;

Titre : Climate Change and the Potential Economic Adaptation in Egyptian Agriculture

Auteur : Yosri Nasr Ahmed Mohamed;

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2020

Université : Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Résumé
There is an international consensus that climate change poses an imminent threat to development around the world ;Egypt is not an exception ;without a doubt,global warming has put Egypt among the countries predicted to be affected by climate change.Therefore,it has become necessary for Egypt to integrate plans of adaptation into its development strategies to overcome or curb or limit the unavoidable impacts of climate change.Consequently,this study analyses the potential economic and social impacts induced by the deterioration of weather conditions on economic growth and food security in Egypt.Accordingly,this study links a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model with a crop model to simulate the potential economic impacts of climate change scenarios through high-resolution climate projections across a Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)by 2030 and 2050.The results show the severe effects of climate change on agricultural productivity,which would lead to a drop in real GDP by about 5.9% and 6.5% by 2030 and 2050,respectively.In conclusion,the adaptation measures under consideration have partially succeeded in restoring growth near the baseline(But does not eliminate the impact of climate change),knowing that these measures are not enough.The findings are potentially vital ;that Egyptian policymakers need to develop adaptation measures that fix the potential impacts of climate change-induced agricultural productivity losses.Finally,the study recommends that:Egyptian policymakers need to develop adaptation measures that address the potential impacts of climate change-induced agricultural productivity losses,such as providing climate-smart crop varieties(i.e.,those that are resistant to heat and drought)to farmers,improving agricultural practices and educating farmers to shift from crops that are highly impacted by climate change to those that are not.Also,the agricultural sector needs more investment to improve productivity.Develop new types of the short growing season to reduce water requirements necessary for it,as well as to change the dates for agriculture,including appropriate to weather conditions,as well as cultivation of new items in appropriate areas to the appropriate climate for increasing the yield of crop harvest water for each unit.reduce wasteful crop area in water consumption,or at least not to increase the size of(such as rice and sugarcane),and plant alternative crops are given the same purpose and water consumption season and lower growth such as the cultivation of sugar beet,instead of sugar cane(in this strategy should take into account that this crop is a major crop in Upper Egypt,in addition to the factories secondary industries and employment based on this crop).Irrigation water at appropriate time’s appropriate quantity in each effect in order to preserve every drop of water,which will need it under conditions of climate change

Mots clés : Climate change; Adaptation strategy; CGE Model; Agricultural productivity; Crop Modeling;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 16 juin 2021, mise à jour le 21 octobre 2021