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Xi’an University of Technology (2021)

Drought Driving and Assessment Prediction in the Yellow River Basin

黄春艳

Titre : Drought Driving and Assessment Prediction in the Yellow River Basin

Auteur : 黄春艳

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2021

Université : Xi’an University of Technology

Résumé partiel
Drought is one of the most widely distributed natural disasters in the world and causing the most serious economic losses.The impact of climate change and human activities has made drought more and more prominent.The shortage of water resources in our country,the widespread,frequent and profound droughts have severely affected the production and life safety of our people,the ecological,food and even the safety of human life and property.On September 18,2019,General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at the Symposium on Ecological Protection and High-quality Development of the Yellow River Basin :"Ensure the long-term stability of the Yellow River,promote high-quality development of the entire basin,improve the lives of the people,and make the Yellow River a happy river that benefits the people".It also emphasizes that the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin is a major national strategy,which fully reflects the important status of the Yellow River as the "mother river" of the Chinese nation in the production,life and ecological security of the country.For a long time,the warming and drying of the climate and the continuous increase of human water use have intensified the impact of climate change and human activities,making the drought in the Yellow River Basin an increasingly prominent threat.It has severely hindered the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin,and restricted the Yellow River Basin.The social and economic development and ecological protection of the Yellow River have also caused a serious impact on the normal life of the people on both sides of the Yellow River.Therefore,there is an urgent need and urgent need to carry out river basin drought assessment,driving and forecasting research,in order to provide scientific reference basis and theoretical guidance for scientific drought prevention,effective drought resistance and efficient overall coordination of the Yellow River Basin’s ecological protection and high-quality development.This paper takes the Yellow River Basin as the research object,starting from meteorological drought and hydrology and agricultural drought,combined with relevant theoretical frameworks based on statistical ecology,hydrology and statistics,with the help of modern relevant statistical indicators,Mann Kendall test,continuous wavelet transform,Copula theoretical framework,empirical mode decomposition and intelligent stochastic optimization algorithm to analyze the spatiotemporal multi-scale spatiotemporal evolution law of meteorology,hydrology and agricultural drought in each subregion of the Yellow River Basin in different regions and use this to assess the drought situation in the basin.Analyze and explore the drought stress mechanism of the terrestrial ecosystem of the Yellow River Basin,analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of vegetation drought recovery time,explore the driving,formation and development mechanisms of different types of drought in the watershed,and study the dynamic response mechanism of meteorological drought and hydrological drought ;construct a decomposition-coupling-optimization three-stage integrated numerical prediction model for short-term prediction,use statistical downscaling methods to estimate meteorological elements under future climatic conditions,and use this to calculate the drought index under future climatic conditions,and predict the long-term of the Yellow River Basin Evolution trend.Combining the advantages of the two methods,together constitute a short-term and long-term multi-level comprehensive forecasting picture for each district of the Yellow River Basin.Identify the main driving factors of meteorological drought,quantitatively analyze the driving factors of drought,and predict the development trend of future meteorological drought.

Mots clés : Yellow River Basin ;Drought driving ;Drought assessment ;Drought prediction ;Dynamic response

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 16 novembre 2021