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Xi’an University of Technology (2021)

Study on the Water Resources Regulation on the Suitable Scale of Sandy Land in Agricultural Utilization in Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern Shaanxi

刘思源

Titre : Study on the Water Resources Regulation on the Suitable Scale of Sandy Land in Agricultural Utilization in Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern Shaanxi

Auteur : 刘思源

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2021

Université : Xi’an University of Technology

Résumé partiel
The agro-pastoral ecotone in Northern Shaanxi is located in the transition zone from the Mu Us sandy land to the Loess Plateau.The farming and animal husbandry in this area has obvious transitional characteristics,fragile ecological environment and shortage of water resources.At present,the scale of sandy land management and utilization in the area has been expanded,and the agricultural water consumption has been increasing.If the current trend of disorderly expansion is still maintained,when the development scale exceeds the support capacity of water resources,it will threaten the natural drought,water shortage and fragile ecological conditions,and directly affect the sustainable development of economy and society.Therefore,coordinating the relationship between resource development and ecological protection is of decisive significance for the sustainable development of regional agricultural economy.Aiming at the problems of water scarcity and fragile ecological environment in study area,in this paper,the key role of water resources in regional economic development and ecological protection is clarified,and the simulation and prediction of water resources are carried out ;a regulation model of sandy agricultural utilization was constructed and the improved NSGA-II multi-objective optimization algorithm was used to explore the appropriate scale of sandy land agricultural utilization under the regulation of water resources.This paper is to provide support for sustainable utilization of resources,sustainable development of ecological environment and stable improvement of economy and society in the ecotone.The main results are as follows :(1)Based on VAR model,the dynamic impact of water resources on agricultural development in ecotone was analyzed,and the key role of water resources in the development of sandy land agriculture was clarified.In this paper,the correlation analysis of water resources,agricultural economy,land use,ecological environment and other closely related indicators in the process of agricultural development is carried out.Based on the typical indicators,a multivariable VAR model is established.The impact of water resources on other indicators in the process of agricultural development in the ecotone is quantitatively analyzed by using impulse response and variance decomposition.The results showed that the comprehensive proportion of water resources contributed 94.44%,90.93%,58.86%,86.39%and 70.93%to the total water consumption,agricultural water consumption,total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,sandy land area and ecological service value,respectively,which indicated that water resources played a key role in agricultural development in the ecotone,and was the main influencing factor and resource driving force.(2)Based on TOPMODEL and WAS model,the natural and social dual water cycle in the ecotone was simulated,and the water resources available in the future was predicted.TOPMODEL model is used to simulate surface runoff based on DEM.Heuristic segmentation algorithm is adopted to analyze the mutation point of historical runoff data.1979 is determined as the year of mutation point.1980-2000 is divided into periodic rate period and 2001-2018 as validation period.The efficiency coefficients of periodic rate period and validation period are 0.87 and 0.79 respectively,which meet the accuracy requirements of the model.Taking the runoff process under the future climate model as the input,the water supply of the ecotone was simulated by the was model.The results show that the water supply of the ecotone under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 rainfall scenarios of Beijing climate model BCC-CSM1.1 is 1.514 billion m3,1.446 billion m3 and 1.470 billion m3 in 2025,and 1.884 billion m3,1.845 billion m3 and 1.872 billion m3 in 2030.

Mots clés : Agro-pastoral ecotone ;Natural society dual water cycle ;VAR model ;Water resources regulation and control ;Improved NSGA-Ⅱ ;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 20 octobre 2021