Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Doctorat → Chine → 2021 → Dynamic Risk Assessment and Prediction of Grassland Fire Disaster in Inner Mongolia under Climate Change

Northeast Normal University (2021)

Dynamic Risk Assessment and Prediction of Grassland Fire Disaster in Inner Mongolia under Climate Change


Titre : Dynamic Risk Assessment and Prediction of Grassland Fire Disaster in Inner Mongolia under Climate Change

Auteur : 丽娜

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2021

Université : Northeast Normal University

Résumé partiel
In recent years,the abnormal global climate change has led to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events,drought and other meteorological disasters.At the same time,the fire risk level of grassland is also gradually rising.Grassland fire disaster are showing a new trend of frequent occurrence in spring and autumn and extending throughout the year.Affected by climate change,most parts of the world have entered a period of grassland fire disaster-prone.Over time,the long-term effects of climate change on the types of combustibles,the accumulation of combustibles,and the short-term effects on fire disaster risks and fire behaviors superimposed on each other,which will further increase the occurrence of grassland fires.Grassland fire disaster is an important part of natural disasters,and its risk assessment has attracted the attention of researchers from various countries.However,research on the impact of climate change and grassland fire disaster risk in China is relatively scattered,with less assessment of past impacts and weak assessment of future risks.China is a large grassland country.The natural grassland accounts for 41.7%of the whole land area.Among them,grassland fire disaster-prone areas account for 1/3 and frequent areas account for 1/6.Inner Mongolia is a high-incidence area for grassland fires disaster in northern China.Since the founding of the China,there have been more than 50000 grassland fires in pastoral areas,with a total of 200 million hm2 of grassland affected,causing economic losses of more than 60 billion RMB,an average of more than 1 billion RMB per year.Inner Mongolia has abundant grassland resources,is an important agricultural production zone in China,and an important ecological barrier in the north.It is of great significance to the sustainable development of economy and society.Therefore,a study on the risk assessment and prediction of grassland fire disaster under the climate change is proposed to realize the transformation of grassland fire disaster management,from crisis management to risk management,and from post-disaster assessment to risk estimation in Inner Mongolia.This research starts from the starting from the continuum of soil-plant-atmosphere,takes different seasons and different vegetation types as the starting point,and takes the grassland fire disaster in Inner Mongolia as the research object.It uses the multi-source data such as meteorological data,remote sensing,basic geographic data,historical disaster statistics and field ground samples data.Under the understanding of the temporal and spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of grassland fire disasters and their impact mechanisms,based on the formation mechanism of disaster risk,construct a comprehensive grassland fire hazard evaluation system,combining field ground measurement data and remote sensing data to establish the vulnerability assessment model of grassland fire disaster,and then establish a new comprehensive grassland fire risk dynamic assessment method under climate change,and carry out dynamic assessment and grading division of grassland fire risks of different grassland types in different seasons.Furthermore,it is coupled with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5(CMIP5)to predict the evolution characteristics of grassland fire risk in different seasons in Inner Mongolia under different carbon emission scenarios.

Mots clés : Grassland fire disaster ;Risk assessment ;Climate change ;Risk predict ;RCPs scenario ;Inner Mongolia ;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 23 octobre 2021