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Xi’an University of Technology (2021)

Analysis of the Characteristics and Driving Forces of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Drought in China Based on the Basin

陈晨

Titre : Analysis of the Characteristics and Driving Forces of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Drought in China Based on the Basin

Auteur : 陈晨

Grade : Master These 2021

Université : Xi’an University of Technology

Résumé partiel
It is of great scientific significance to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and driving force analysis of drought in river basin.Based on the monthly precipitation,monthly mean air temperature,and potential evapotranspiration data in the CRU TS 4.03 dataset from 1982 to 2018,this paper calculated the self-corrected Palmer drought index as the meteorological and agricultural integrated drought index,to measure the drought degree in China.Based on the national watershed scale,the spatial and temporal evolution of drought events in the past 37 years was analyzed,Such as drought trend,drought covered area ratio,drought center migration,drought frequency,etc.Secondly,the Yellow River Basin and the Pearl River Basin were selected as representative basins,and the climatic factors and underlying surface factors of drought in the two basins were qualitatively analyzed.Finally,geodetector model was used to quantitatively study the influencing factors of drought in the two basins.The main research contents and results are as follows :(1)Based on the CRU dataset,the modified Palmer drought index(sc-PDSI),which represents the meteorological and agricultural drought,was calculated,and the temporal characteristics of drought at the national and river basin scales were analyzed by drought trend and drought area ratio.The results show that from 1982 to 2018,the whole region of China showed a weak trend of aridity,while the sc-PDSI in the northwest rivers showed a significant upward trend,and the drought decreased,while the sc-PDSI in the Songhua River,Liaohe River showed a significant downward trend.Liaohe River,Haihe River and Yellow River had a relatively high proportion of interannual drought area,and the drought was the most serious in 2000-2003.The proportion of drought-affected areas was higher from August to December,but lower from May to June,and there was no obvious change in the proportion of drought-affected areas in the Yangtze River and the northwestern rivers.(2)Sen+Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test,gravity center transfer model,run theory,drought frequency and other methods were used to further analyze the spatial evolution characteristics of drought in each basin,and construct drought-causing factors to evaluate the drought risk level of each basin.The results showed that the drought gravity center under different drought levels was mainly distributed in the Yellow River Basin,Southwest River Basin and Northwest River Basin during 1982-2018,and the migration trend was generally east-west more than north-south,and the migration distance of the gravity center increased with the higher the drought level.On the trend of drought,the northwestern part of the Yangtze

Mots clés : China’s top ten river basins ; Integrated meteorological and agricultural drought index ; Spatiotemporal evolution ; Driving force ;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 25 octobre 2021