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Xi’an University of Technology (2021)

Research on Water-forage Resources Carrying Capacity of Arid Sandy Pastoral Area Based on System Dynamics

刘晓迪

Titre : Research on Water-forage Resources Carrying Capacity of Arid Sandy Pastoral Area Based on System Dynamics

Auteur : 刘晓迪

Grade : Master Theses 2021

Université : Xi’an University of Technology

Résumé partiel
The shortage of water resources and natural grassland degradation in the western pastoral areas have always been important factors affecting the local grassland ecology and socio-economic development.In order to change the current situation of overgrazing of livestock in pastoral areas and degradation of grassland ecological functions,seeking the rational development and utilization of water resources and natural forage resources is the key to achieving grassland ecological protection and the simultaneous development of the social economy.Researching on the carrying capacity of water-forage resources in pastoral areas,by coordinating the coupling configuration of artificial grassland and natural grassland,adjusting the agricultural irrigation planting structure,and controlling the reasonable livestock carrying capacity,there will help promote the development of pastoral areas to ecological animal husbandry and enhance the virtuous cycle of grassland ecology,eventually achieve high-quality development of ecology and economy in the pastoral areas.This study takes this as the goal,taking arid sandy pastoral area of OtogBanner as an example,combining with the current situation of the development and utilization of water-forage resources in the local pasturing area,analyzing the relevant factors of the water-forage resources carrying capacity,establishing a water-forage resources carrying capacity evaluation index system in the arid sandy pastoral area,and constructing the SD model of water-forage resources carrying capacity in pastoral area.This research analyzes the sensitive parameters in the SD model in combination with the laws of agricultural water use and livestock feeding,and sets up different plans based on this,taking each water resources zoning of OtogB anner as a unit to seek suitable local grassland ecology and social economy development of the optimal water-forage resources allocation plan.The main conclusions of this study are as follows :(1)Taking each water resources zoning of OtogB anner as a unit,this research investigates the development and utilization of water resources and natural forage resources in 2016,analyzes the development of artificial grassland and livestock breeding in this pastoral area,and carries out water-forage resources under different guarantee rate.The analysis of the supply and demand balance shows that Zhuozi mountain zoning had different degrees of natural forage resources and water resources overload under different guarantee rate.In Dusituhe river watershed zoning,natural forage resources were relatively abundant under 25%and 50%guarantee rate,but water resources were seriously overloaded,and groundwater was over-exploited.Under 75%guarantee rate,both water resources and natural forage resources were overloaded.Inland river watershed zoning was relatively rich in water resources,and there was no overload situation.Artificial forage was insufficient under different guarantee rate,and natural forage resources were overloaded under 75%guarantee rate.(2)Based on the actual situation in the pastoral area of OtogBanner,the influencing factors of the water-forage resources carrying capacity are analyzed theoretically,an index system for the carrying capacity of water-forage resources in the pastoral area of OtogBanner is constructed,and divide into water resources subsystem,forage resources subsystem,socio-economic subsystem,and grassland ecological subsystem,including a total of 18 indicators.And adopt comprehensive weighting combining the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method to calculate the weight of the index system.(3)The complex system of water-forage resources carrying capacity is divided into five subsystems of water resources,forage resources,society,economy and grassland ecology.Based on the current and future development trend of water-forage resources in the pastoral area of OtogBanner,the SD model of water-forage resources carrying capacity was constructed using Vensim PLE software,and through rationality and historical testing,at the same time,a total of 13 sensitivity parameters were selected in the model to provide a basis for different scheme settings

Mots clés : Arid Sandy Pastoral Area ;Water-Forage Resources Carrying Capacity ;Evaluation index system ;Grassland ecological protection ;System Dynamics ;OtogBanner;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 31 octobre 2021