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Accueil du site → Master → Chine → 2021 → Runoff Characteristics,Attribution Analysis and Future Prediction of the Cold and Arid Regions ——A Case Study of Headwater of the Manas

Northwest A&F University (2021)

Runoff Characteristics,Attribution Analysis and Future Prediction of the Cold and Arid Regions ——A Case Study of Headwater of the Manas

杨武超

Titre : Runoff Characteristics,Attribution Analysis and Future Prediction of the Cold and Arid Regions ——A Case Study of Headwater of the Manas

Auteur : 杨武超

Grade : Master 2021

Université :

Résumé partiel
Runoff is the main source of production and domestic water for residents in cold and dry areas.However,its ecological fragile and extremely sensitive to environmental changes.With increased global warming and human activities,analyzing streamflow changes,finding related factors,and projecting future streamflow changes can help water resources management and sustainable ecosystem development for dry-cold regions.Our study analyzed historical streamflow changes and explored possible causes using multiple statistical methods and observations including observed streamflow,climate forcing,land use and land cover type,vegetation coverage,and global atmospheric factors.The statistical methods are linear regression,Mann-Kendall test,partial correlation analysis,and multiple wavelet coherence.Second,we quantified the contribution of groundwater,rainfall runoff,and snowmelt runoff to streamflow and found dominant factors in influencing each contributor for the Manas River Basin using Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM).Lastly,we bias-corrected future precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature from 5 regional climate models involved in the CORDEX-EA-1 project and projected future streamflow changes for the Manas River Basin with calibrated SRM driven by these bias-corrected climate data.The major conclusions are as follow :(1)This study investigated the change in runoff during 1954–2016 and its dominant environmental factors.The annual runoff significantly increased at a rate of 0.508×108m3/decade,and the climate tends to be warmer and wetter.The regional environmental factors had larger impacts on runoff than the global environmental factors,and the natural factors outperformed human activities in controlling runoff.Among the regional and global environmental factors,NDVI and ENSO are the single factor mostly correlated with runoff,while NDVI-TMP and ENSO-PDO are the combined factors with the strongest relations on runoff,respectively.The accelerated melting of snow/glacier induced by the increasing temperature dominated runoff change,and the increasing water inputs from wetter climate play a second role in runoff

Mots clés : cold and arid region ;headwater of Manas River Basin ;runoff;climate change ;wavelet coherence ;SRM;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 11 novembre 2021