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Northwest A&F University (2021)

Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disasters in Northwest China

李大驰

Titre : Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disasters in Northwest China

Auteur : 李大驰

Grade : Master 2021

Université : Northwest A&F University

Résumé partiel
Drought disasters are one of the most frequent,largest,and most severe natural disasters in the world.They have caused great harm to the economic life and property safety of human society,especially agricultural production and life.Northwest China is the arid and semi-arid region with the largest distribution area in China,drought disasters occur all year round,which has a profound impact on agricultural production and life in the region.Clarifying the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of agricultural drought-causing factors in Northwest China and analyzing the distribution of agricultural drought disaster risk in the region are the core content of formulating reasonable and effective drought risk management policies to prevent major droughts.This article takes Northwest China as the research area,using Mann-Kendall mutation test method,sliding average method,analytic hierarchy process,inverse distance weighting method,wavelet period analysis and other methods to analyze the time series trends,spatial distribution characteristics and abrupt characteristics of precipitation and temperature in Northwest China.Analyze the temporal and spatial distribution and periodic change characteristics of agricultural drought disasters ;Pearson correlation coefficient and wavelet cross analysis method are used to analyze the response of MCI to ENSO events,Arctic Oscillation and other large-scale climate factors ;Based on the disaster risk theory,the tomographic analysis method is used to determine the weight of agricultural drought disaster risk index and each factor in the northwest region.The agricultural drought disaster risk indicators in the research area are analyzed on the GIS platform.The main conclusions are as follows :(1)From 1970 to 2016,the multi-year average precipitation in Northwest China was356.03 mm,and the annual average precipitation increased at a rate of 8.223mm/10 a.The four seasons of the northwestern region show a significant increase in precipitation,with the largest increase trend in summer and the smallest increase trend in winter.From the perspective of spatial distribution characteristics,the annual average precipitation in Northwest China gradually decreases from east to west and from south to north,and the spatial distribution of precipitation in each season shows a decrease from east to west.From 1970 to 2016,the linear trend rate of the multi-year average temperature in Northwest China was 0.40℃/10 a.The average temperature in the northwestern region has been on the rise for many years,with the highest growth rate in spring and the smallest growth rate in summer.In terms of spatial distribution,the multi-year average temperature in Northwest China is the highest in Xinjiang and Shaanxi in the east and west,and Qinghai has the lowest multi-year average temperature.

Mots clés : Cimate change ;Meteorological drought ;MCI;Characteristics of temporal and spatial changes ;Disaster risk ;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 9 novembre 2021