Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Master → Chine → 2021 → Variations of Meteorological Drought Characteristics and Drought Tendency in the Upper and Middle Reaches of Huai River Basin Based on CMIP6

Yangzhou University (2021)

Variations of Meteorological Drought Characteristics and Drought Tendency in the Upper and Middle Reaches of Huai River Basin Based on CMIP6

林慧

Titre : Variations of Meteorological Drought Characteristics and Drought Tendency in the Upper and Middle Reaches of Huai River Basin Based on CMIP6

Auteur : 林慧

Grade : Master 2021

Université : Yangzhou University

Résumé partiel
As an important grain production base in China,Huai River Basin is prone to drought due to its unique geographical location and climate characteristics.In the past century,with the significant climate change,drought disaster and its risk become more prominent.Therefore,the study of drought under the climate change is helpful to improve the drought prevention and drought resistance ability of the basin,guarantee the food production in China,and promote the sustainable development of society,economy and ecology.Based on the observation data of 19 meteorological stations in the Upper and Middle Reaches of Huai River Basin(UMHRB),NCEP reanalysis data and HadGEM3-GC3-LL model data,combined with Statistical Downscaling Model(SDSM)to simulate the precipitation and temperature of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in the future.Based on SPEI,analyzing the historical and future drought trend,drought cycle,drought station frequency ratio,drought frequency,drought characteristics and the causes of drought and wet events from the perspective of time and space by using linear regression,Mann Kendall trend test,Morlet wavelet analysis,run length theory and IDW interpolation.The main conclusions are as follows :(1)SDSM can simulate the trend of precipitation and temperature,and the simulation effect of temperature is better than precipitation.Precipitation and temperature in the future would increase(except spring temperature of SSP2-4.5),the annual and four seasons precipitation and temperature basically show a strong upward trend(except winter precipitation of SSP2-4.5),and the upward trend of high emission scenario is more obvious.(2)The dry and wet trend of the basin has changed significantly in the future.In history,there was a trend of drought in spring and autumn,and a trend of wetness in summer and winter.In the future of SSP2-4.5 scenario,the annual and four seasons showed a trend of drought.In the future of SSP5-8.5 scenario,the annual,spring and summer showed a trend of drought,while the autumn and winter showed a trend of wetness(3)In history,the distribution of annual drought trend is uneven,the drought trend in spring is mainly concentrated in the south of the basin ;summer is mainly concentrated in the northeast of the basin and near Zhumadian and Kaifeng ;autumn is mainly concentrated in the west of the basin,winter is mainly concentrated in the north and southwest of the basin.In the future,the trend of drought is stronger in the east and southeast of the basin,especially under the high emission scenario(

Mots clés : Meteorological drought ;Climate change ;SDSM;CMIP6 ;Huai River Basin ;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 7 novembre 2021