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Inner Mongolia Normal University (2021)

Winter Drought Monitoring and Black Dzud Early Warning in Pastoral Areas of Inner Mongolia

李梦茹

Titre : Winter Drought Monitoring and Black Dzud Early Warning in Pastoral Areas of Inner Mongolia

Auteur : 李梦茹

Grade : Master 2021

Université :

Résumé
In the pastoral areas of middle and high latitudes,winter drought is the main factor leading to "black dzud ",which is characterized by the presence or absence of surface snow.When it occurs on anhydrous grassland or waterdeficient grassland,it turns into a black dzud.The disease is prone to occur and easily affects the greening period of the pasture in the next year,so it causes major damage to the pasture and livestock in the pastoral area,and causes huge losses to herders,but also poses a serious threat to the safety of the ecological environment.Therefore,monitoring of winter drought and black dzud in pastoral areas,Early warning can be of great significance to effectively improve herdsmen is awareness of avoiding black dzud risks.In this paper,33 pure animal husbandry banners in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region are used as the research area,and the MODIS snow product MOD10A1 with high temporal and spatial resolution is used to extract the ground-free snow information,and the cumulative snow-free days are used to monitor the winter drought in the past 20 years in Inner Mongolia.,And further identify and extract black dzud information to monitor the black dzud situation in Inner Mongolia pastoral areas in the past 20 years.Based on the black dzud monitoring in Inner Mongolia pastoral areas,three pure animal husbandry banners(Zalut Banner,Qi,Horqin Youyihouqi and Horqin Right Banner)in Tongliao City,Inner Mongolia as the research area,with the time series from October 15,2018 to April 15,2019,with weather forecast data and MOD10A1 as important parameters to establish a short-term black dzud early warning model,and conduct a survey on the pastoral area of Tongliao City Black dzud warning and testing its feasibility.Research indicates :(1)The cumulative snow-free days were used to monitor the winter droughts in pastoral areas in Inner Mongolia for the past 20 years.The occurrence of the winter droughts in the pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia was based on the spatial pattern and time series.In the inter-annual time series,the winter droughts were 2001-2002 and 2018-2019.More prominent,the winter drought during the year is mainly concentrated in February and March.In terms of spatial pattern,the entire pastoral area of western Inner Mongolia includes Alxa League,Ordos City,Bayannaoer City and Chifeng City,Tongliao City and southern Xing’an League in the eastern pastoral area of Inner Mongolia.It is relatively arid,and the areas with significant increase and decrease in spatial changes in the past 20 years are positively small.The proportion of the area with no significant increase is greater than the proportion of the area with no significant decrease.The area with no significant decrease is basically distributed in the south of central Inner Mongolia pastoral area and eastern Inner Mongolia pastoral area Northerly area.(2)Based on the number of consecutive days without snow cover,the national black dzud classification standard has been used to identify and monitor black dzud in pastoral areas in Inner Mongolia in the past 20 years.The occurrence of black disasters is more consistent with winter droughts.Severe black dzud occurred in the largest area during 2007-2008 and accounted for the proportion As much as 46%,moderate black dzud occurred in the largest area in 2005-2006,accounting for 34%,and mild black dzud occurred in 2009-2010,accounting for the largest area,accounting for 62%.In the past 20 years,the frequency of severe black dzud is up to 25 times.High-frequency severe black dzud mainly occur in the western and eastern south of Inner Mongolia.Moderate black disasters occur up to 21 times.High-frequency severe black dzud mainly occur in Inner Mongolia.Xilin Gol League area in the central pastoral area.The frequency of mild black dzud is up to 41.High-frequency mild black dzud are mainly distributed in the entire middle pastoral area of Inner Mongolia and the east side of the eastern pastoral area.(3)The short-term black dzud early warning model established in this paper simulates and verifies the early warning of pastoral areas in Tongliao City.Among them,mild black dzud warning occurs most frequently,with an area inspection accuracy of 71.55%,and severe black dzud warning occurs less frequently.Area inspection The accuracy is 63.68%,and the area inspection accuracy for moderate black dzud is 92.28%.The early warning effect for severe black dzud is not ideal,but the overall area accuracy is 74.81%,which is still feasible.

Mots clés : MOD10A1 ;Winter Drought ;Black Dzud ;Black Dzud Warning ;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 25 novembre 2021