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Inner Mongolia Normal University (2021)

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Prediction of Meteorological Drought in Eastern Inner Mongolia

彭健

Titre : Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Prediction of Meteorological Drought in Eastern Inner Mongolia

Auteur : 彭健

Grade : Master 2021

Université : Inner Mongolia Normal University

Résumé
Meteorological drought is a natural phenomenon caused by the imbalance of water budget.Under the background of global warming,droughts frequently occur in eastern Inner Mongolia.In order to reduce the impact of drought,it is necessary to clarify the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and future trend of drought in eastern Inner Mongolia.Based on the meteorological data recorded by 42 weather stations in eastern Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2019,this study analyzed the trend and spatial distribution of temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours and potential evapotranspiration in various regions of eastern Inner Mongolia in the past 60 years.The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)was used to characterize the drought in eastern Inner Mongolia,and to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of drought and the prediction of future trends.Studies have shown that the inter-annual drought has shown an insignificant increase in the past 60 years.The areas with greater drought intensity are distributed in the Xinbarhuzuoqi-Xinbarhuyouqi-Chen Barhuqi in the southwest of Hulunbuir.The higher frequency of annual drought areas is mainly distributed in the Wengniuteqi-Kalaqinqi-Ningcheng County in the southwest of aridification.Seasonal-scale drought trends and spatial distribution are not the same.In the spring,the drought showed an overall relief trend.The drought intensified from 1960 to 1980,and the drought in eastern Inner Mongolia was reduced from 1980 to 2019.In the southern part of Xing’an League and most of Tongliao,the drought intensity in the southeast of Chifeng is relatively high,and the areas with higher drought frequency are concentrated in the northeast of Hulunbuir.In summer,the drought change process can be divided into three periods.From 1960 to 1985,from 1985 to 2000,and from2000 to 2019,the trends of drought change were intensified,alleviated,and intensified,respectively.The drought intensified in the autumn of 1960-1970.After 1970,the drought was relieved on the whole.In summer and autumn,the degree of drought in eastern Inner Mongolia showed consistency and globality.The areas with higher drought frequency were located in the southwest of Chifeng and southern Tongliao,southern Hulunbuir and northern Xing’an League.The drought in winter has been alleviating,but SPEI has shown a downward trend in recent years,and the drought has intensified.Areas with high drought intensity are located in most of Hulunbuir,south of Tongliao and southwest of Chifeng.Areas with high frequency of drought are distributed in the Keyouzhongqi area in the southeast of Xing’an League.The future change trend of drought in eastern Inner Mongolia is specifically expressed as : the annual-scale SPEI is more likely to maintain the change trend from 1960 to 2019 in the future.In the central and western parts of Hulunbuir,the northwestern part of the Xing’an League,the southern part of Tongliao and the western part of Chifeng,the trend of aridification will continue.In spring,the Manzhouli-Hailaer-E’ergun-Tuli River area in the northwest of Hulunbuir has relatively strong spring drought persistence.In summer,the drought trend in the western,central and northern parts of Hulunbuir,and the eastern part of Xing’an League has continued to be strong.In autumn,the drought persisted in the Shebottu-Tongliao-Kezuohouqi area.In winter,the eastern part of Inner Mongolia will continue to be humid during the future climate change,but the humidification in the southwest of the Xing’an League,the north of Tongliao and the north of Chifeng is weak.This study analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution of meteorological drought in eastern Inner Mongolia,and at the same time clarifies the spatial distribution of drought intensity and frequency at annual and seasonal scales,and predicts future drought trends in various regions.It provides a scientific basis for the formulation of drought prevention,drought resistance,and drought control countermeasures in the region to reduce the losses caused by drought.

Mots clés : eastern Inner Mongolia ;meteorological drought ;SPEI;spatiotemporal evolution ;drought prediction ;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 14 novembre 2021