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Universität Hamburg (2020)

Meteorological Drought - Universal Monitoring and reliable seasonal Prediction with the Standardized Precipitation Index

Pieper, Patrick

Titre : Meteorological Drought - Universal Monitoring and reliable seasonal Prediction with the Standardized Precipitation Index

Meteorologische Dürre - Universelle Beobachtung und zuverlässige jahreszeitliche Vorhersage mit dem Standardisierten Precipitation Index

Auteur : Pieper, Patrick

Université de soutenance : Universität Hamburg

Grade : Doctoral degree 2020

Résumé partiel
Drought is arguably the most complex and least-understood natural hazard. Its understanding is obscured by irreconcilable spatiotemporal monitoring across different model realizations and observational datasets. This obscurity and our generally limited understanding adversely affect our ability to predict this hazard’s probability of occurrence. While promising developments show potential improvements for both of these shortcomings, further progress through novel approaches are still in urgent need. This dissertation addresses both shortcomings by reconciling drought monitoring across the dimensions mentioned above and demonstrating reliable skill of dynamical seasonal drought predictions at unprecedented lead times.

The emergence of standardized drought indices revolutionized drought monitoring. Their advantages reside in their probability-based interpretability and application-based flexibility. In contrast, their disadvantages concern deficits in their robustness, extendability, and tractability. A calculation algorithm that universally standardizes highly non-normally distributed precipitation time series would rectify these deficits for the most widely used drought index – the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). However, such a calculation algorithm proved elusive in the past because the abundance of involved dimensions seemed irreconcilable. This dissertation presents a computation algorithm that universally standardizes the index across space, time, and different realizations. The results demonstrate that the exponentiated Weibull distribution excels in the standardization of the index. Particularly notable is that this finding establishes the theoretical basis for the SPI to be applied to simulations.

Mots clés  : Seasonal prediction ; Drought ; Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

Présentation

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Page publiée le 16 novembre 2021