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University of Arizona (2021)

Hydrologic Intermediaries as a Missing Link Between Modelers and Stakeholders : A Case Study of Santa Cruz Active Management Area

Grewal Vivek Singh,

Titre : Hydrologic Intermediaries as a Missing Link Between Modelers and Stakeholders : A Case Study of Santa Cruz Active Management Area

Auteur :

Université de soutenance : University of Arizona

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2021

Résumé
Applied hydrologic modelers commonly see their role as providing a versatile tool that can predict the impacts of a variety of changes to hydrologic systems. Stakeholders commonly see a hydrologic model as a tool that can provide clear predictions to their specific questions, by integrating all the hydrologic factors. There are many publicly available regional hydrologic models in the US, but local stakeholders find it difficult to use these models for their decision-making. Given this distance between modelers and stakeholders, it seems that there is a critical role for an intermediary who can guide a stakeholder for optimal use of a hydrologic model to answer stakeholder-specific questions. The goals of this study are (1) to conceptualize the role and workflow of Hydrologic Intermediary (HI) in the context of model capability, (2) to illustrate with a case study, how an HI may provide results from a calibrated model, and conduct prediction uncertainty analysis. The study takes up an example case for the Santa Cruz Active Management Area in Arizona, where a calibrated groundwater model, developed by the Arizona Department of Water Resources, is used to guide land and water use planning efforts by a non-profit organization, Arizona Land and Water Trust. The stakeholder requirements that are within model capabilities are provided with model forecasts and estimates of forecast error are made using uncertainty analysis tools - PEST and pyEMU. The requirements which are outside the model capability are revised into something that the model can predict. Such hydrologic intermediation may be a cost-effective way to increase access to models, reduce misuse of models, and make models that are more responsive to stakeholder requirements.

Mots clés : access intermediaries models stakeholders

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Page publiée le 12 décembre 2021