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Accueil du site → Doctorat → États-Unis → 2021 → An Evaluation of New Mexico’s Rangeland Beef Cattle Production System in Response to Environmental and Socioeconomic Changes Using 38–97 Years of Data

New Mexico State University (2021)

An Evaluation of New Mexico’s Rangeland Beef Cattle Production System in Response to Environmental and Socioeconomic Changes Using 38–97 Years of Data

Zaied, Ashraf

Titre : An Evaluation of New Mexico’s Rangeland Beef Cattle Production System in Response to Environmental and Socioeconomic Changes Using 38–97 Years of Data

Auteur : Zaied, Ashraf

Université de soutenance : New Mexico State University

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Range science 2021

Résumé
Beef cattle production systems can be influenced by several environmental and economic factors. Understanding the interactions between these factors and beef cattle production is critical as they can affect the profitability of beef cattle enterprises. Specifically, environmental changes and production management can impact the performance, expenses, and revenue of these systems. To better understand these interactions, three different studies were conducted in New Mexico State to examine the relationship between some environmental factors and production and prices of beef cattle and three forage crops. Related historical data were obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Western Regional Climate Center, Federal reserve Economic Data (FRED). Statistical analysis was conducted using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (GARCH), its exponential form, spectral analysis and decomposition of time series components, and wavelet coherence analysis. The first study indicated that the major factors that can affect beef cattle population include hay production, mean annual hay prices, and mean annual temperature. The factors that can affect calf crop production include mean annual temperature, cattle feed sold, and crude oil production. Mean annual beef cattle prices were positively correlated with crude oil production, mean annual hay prices, rangeland conditions, and mean annual precipitation ; and negatively correlated with mean annual temperature. Some of the variation in mean annual calf crop prices was explained by hay production, mean annual temperature, and crude oil production. The second study evaluated forage production based on three crops including hay, corn, and grain sorghum. It was found that hay production was negatively correlated with crude oil production and beef cattle population, while mean annual hay prices were negatively correlated with mean annual range conditions and positively was mean annual crude oil prices. Grain sorghum production was negatively correlated with mean annual temperature and positively correlated with beef cattle population and range conditions. Mean annual grain sorghum prices were positively correlated with crude oil prices and beef cattle population. corn production was negatively correlated with crude oil production and beef cattle population. Mean annual corn prices were positively correlated with mean annual precipitation and negatively correlated with crude oil production. The third study indicated that prices of cattle and calf dropped in October through January and peaked up in April. Cattle prices cycle had 3 years of increase followed by 3 years of decline, while calf prices cycle had 6 years of decrease followed by 3 years of increase. Cattle supply and drought showed a strong relationship with cattle and calf prices. Lead/lag phase relation between Cattle classes and drought was observed.

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Page publiée le 3 décembre 2021