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Technical University of Crete (TUC) 2020

Impact of climate change on the hydrology and geochemistry of Crete and estimation of uncertainty

Nerantzaki, Sofia - Νεραντζάκη Σοφία -

Titre : Impact of climate change on the hydrology and geochemistry of Crete and estimation of uncertainty

Auteur : Nerantzaki, Sofia - Νεραντζάκη Σοφία -

Etablissement de soutenance : Technical University of Crete (TUC)

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2020

Résumé partiel
The Mediterranean region has been identified as a “climate change hot-spot”. The specific region is projected to undergo the most significant drying among 26 regions across the world, by the end of the 21st century. Karstic springs are the exclusive source of water during dry months for most Mediterranean regions. The impact of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of karstic springs has not received proper attention in the scientific literature. In addition, uncertainty assessment of the hydrologic projections for karstic watersheds has not been studied and may reveal possible water deficits that cannot otherwise be taken into account. This study aims to (1) estimate the impact of climate change on the flow and water quality predictions of Mediterranean karstic watersheds (2) quantify the uncertainty of these predictions stemming from hydrologic model parameters, climate change scenario and internal variability, and (3) evaluate the response of different Mediterranean karstic springs to the present-day and forecasted meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) along with a karstic model (Karst-SWAT) is used to assess the composite spring and surface flow of the karstic watershed of Koiliaris along with the transferred nitrogen nitrate and sediment masses. The parameter uncertainty of both the surface and karstic flow models are estimated by combining the SUFI2 interface and the @RISK by PALISADE software. Input to the hydrologic models is provided by eleven combinations of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble. Representative rainfall time series for certain of these scenarios are stochastically modeled with the LARS weather generator. Monte Carlo simulations are used to investigate the effect of input internal variability on the flow output. The meteorological drought of the present-day and future periods is translated into hydrological drought for three Mediterranean karstic springs with different properties. Specifically, the springs under study are the Stilos spring (Koiliaris River Basin), the Meskla spring and the Agia spring (Keritis River Basin). The Karst-SWAT model is used to quantify the hydrologic response of the karstic springs, which are characterized by different systems and water detention times. A non-parametric drought index is modified to estimate the future frequency, duration and intensity of meteorological and hydrological droughts in comparison to the referen

Mots clés : Meteorological drought Parameter uncertainty Δείκτης ξηρασίας Mediterranean watershed Εσωτερική μεταβλητότητα Drought index Karstic watershed Suspended sediments Αιωρούμενα στερεά SWAT Climate change Αβεβαιότητα λόγω παραμέτρων Υδρολογική ξηρασία Μοντέλο Karst-SWAT Μετεωρολογική ξηρασία Nitrate nitrogen Karst-SWAT

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Page publiée le 29 décembre 2021