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Lund University (2020)

An Evaluation of Factors Affecting Diffusion and Churn Rate of Solar Home Systems in Kenya

Rundqvist, Felix and Nilsson Tengstrand, Sara

Titre : An Evaluation of Factors Affecting Diffusion and Churn Rate of Solar Home Systems in Kenya

Auteur : Rundqvist, Felix and Nilsson Tengstrand, Sara

Université de soutenance : Lund University

Grade : Master’s Degree (Two Years) 2020

A problem in Kenya is the lack of access to electricity, mainly in rural areas. It will take many decades for the main grid to reach all rural areas wherefore several off-grid electrification options have been put forward to solve this issue. One of them is the Solar Home System (SHS), which is an off-grid solar product that can be used for applications such as lamps, radios, TVs and charging mobile phones. A recent payment model for the SHS is the Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) model where customers make regular payments according to a payment plan, whereafter they become the owner of the system. This payment model allows the SHS to be an affordable solution to many. In order for the companies providing SHS (Solar Companies) to grow in a sustainable way, it is important to target the right customers and, because of the long term characteristics of the PAYG model, create long-lasting relationships with these customers. This thesis, therefore, aims to find influential factors for how Solar Companies should target and keep customers.

The thesis consists of a literature review, a quantitative analysis, and a qualitative analysis in order to triangulate the findings. The quantitative analysis includes both a regression analysis and a credit data analysis with data from Trine, who works with providing loans to Solar Companies, while the qualitative analysis includes several interviews with representatives from the off-grid solar industry.

The result shows that Solar Companies should target areas with lower poverty levels, customers who live in rural areas as well as customers who are working with agriculture or other immobile professions. Furthermore, Solar Companies should target customer in areas where there already is a presence of SHS. Since the result shows that the best customers are not the always the ones who have the greatest need for SHS, it is important with support from governments and NPOs to reach these groups. Moreover, the neighbourhood influence is also a key factor as to why installing the system with high visibility is important. Potential customers that are already connected to the main grid are still interesting even though their payment process might be protracted.

Mots Clés  : Solar Home System, SHS, Pay-As-You-Go, PAYG, Diffusion, Churn, Innovation-Decision Process, Kenya


Page publiée le 1er janvier 2022